DAX 40, AUD/USD and copper slip on Middle East uncertainty
Technical analysis of the DAX 40, AUD/USD and copper prices as they drop amid Middle East uncertainty.
Macro update
Asian equities:
Losses were trimmed after earlier declines, with MSCI Asia-Pacific down 0.7% but still set for a fourth consecutive weekly drop, while Chinese markets outperformed on hopes of policy support.
Geopolitics:
US President Trump extended the deadline for potential strikes on Iran by 10 days, easing immediate concerns, though uncertainty remains elevated amid reports of possible troop deployments.
Oil markets:
Despite rising on the day they are heading for a weekly loss, although prices remain elevated above $100 for Brent crude oil due to ongoing supply disruption.
US markets:
Wall Street futures gained around 0.6% after the Nasdaq 100 slipped into correction territory, down nearly 11% from its recent peak.
Rates and bonds:
Global yields moved higher as oil-driven inflation fears intensified, with markets now assigning roughly a 40–50% probability of a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike by September.
Currencies and gold:
The US dollar stayed near recent highs on safe-haven demand, while gold rebounded 2% but is still on course for a fourth straight weekly decline.
DAX 40 remains under pressure
The DAX 40 is trying to hold above its current March low but continues to slip towards it at 21,864. Support between the 20 to 24 March lows at 22,370 - 22,350 may offer support on the way down, though.
For a bullish reversal to gain traction Thursday's high at 22,813 will need to be exceeded. In this case Wednesday's high at 23,079 may be revisited.
Short-term outlook:
Bearish while below the 25 March 23,079 high.
Medium-term outlook:
Bearish while below the 18 March high at 23,957.
DAX 40 daily candlestick chart
AUD/USD trades in two-month lows
AUD/USD has been sliding over the past week or so and is now trading at levels last seen in late January at $0.6872. If slipped through, there isn't much support to speak of until the August 2024 high at $0.6824 and the July 2024 peak at $0.6798.
Resistance sits between $0.6897 and $0.6911 and, if overcome, can also be spotted around the $0.6945 early March low.
Short-term outlook:
Bearish while below the 26 March $0.7036 high.
Medium-term outlook:
Neutral while below the 24 March high at $0.7100.
AUD/USD daily candlestick chart
Copper price stabilises
The price of copper, having recovered from last week's $5.2463 four-month low, has been range trading in low volatility around the $5.5000 mark.
A rise and daily chart close above this week's high at $5.5935 is needed, for the mid-February-t-mid-March lows at $5.6280 - $5.6563 to be revisited.
A slip through Thursday's $5.4448 may lead to the $5.4000 region being eyed instead, though.
Short-term outlook:
Neutral while holding above the 22 March $5.2463 low
Medium-term outlook:
Neutral while trading above the 22 March $5.2463 low, failure there would turn the forecast bearish, targeting the $5.000 region
Copper daily candlestick chart
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