Commonwealth Bank of Australia FY2026 earnings preview

When will Commonwealth Bank report its latest earnings?

Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) is scheduled to release its full-year results for the 12 months ending 30 June 2026 on Wednesday, 12 August 2026.

The backdrop

In its half-year 2026 (HY26) results delivered in February, CBA turned in a strong performance. Cash net profit after tax (NPAT) rose 6% to a record $5.445 billion, while statutory NPAT climbed 5% to $5.412 billion. The result was supported by solid lending and deposit volume growth across home and business banking. Home lending rose 6.6% over the 12 months to December (in line with the overall system), while business lending increased 12.3% (compared with 9.8% for the system). The bank declared a fully franked interim dividend of $2.35 per share (up 4%, or 10 cents), representing a normalised payout ratio of around 74%.

Net interest margin (NIM) came in at 2.04%, down 4 basis points (bp). The decline was partly offset by strong growth in at-call deposits, leaving the underlying margin broadly stable. Loan impairment expense fell to $319 million as credit quality continued to improve, with home loan arrears declining and provision coverage remaining healthy. The cost-to-income ratio sat at 44.7%, while the Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio held firm at a comfortable 12.3%. Operating expenses rose 5%, reflecting ongoing inflation and higher investment spend, which increased 10% to $1.2 billion as the bank accelerated technology modernisation and expanded its generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) capabilities.

Chief executive officer (CEO) Matt Comyn summed up the half: 'We have continued to execute our strategy with discipline, maintaining a strong focus on supporting customers while delivering sustainable outcomes for shareholders. A strong labour market and, until recently, easing interest rates, have provided some relief for borrowers, and our credit quality has improved.'

Unlike the more muted reception to the previous full-year numbers, the market responded enthusiastically this time. CBA shares finished 6.82% higher on the day of the release and then backed it up with a 5.41% gain the next day, as investors cheered the clean beat on both profit and the dividend, along with clear evidence of franchise strength.

Summary of CBA's HY 2026 highlights chart

Highlights from the previous quarter

Fast forward to mid-May and the tone was more cautious. CBA's March quarter – third quarter (Q3) FY26 – trading update, released on 13 May, showed unaudited cash NPAT of approximately $2.7 billion. That was up 4% on the prior comparative quarter but down 1% on the first half (H1) FY26 quarterly average. Statutory NPAT came in around $2.6 billion.

Operating income was essentially flat in the quarter, with the benefit of continued lending and deposit volume growth offset by two fewer days. Operating performance still rose a solid 5.6% year-on-year (YoY). Volume trends remained healthy:

• Home lending grew at 1.0x system
• Household deposits grew at 1.1x system
• Business lending continued to outpace the system at 1.2x (up 12.5%)

The softer part of the update was the loan impairment expense of $316 million, which included a $200 million top-up to collective provisions reflecting heightened geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty. CET1 capital sat at 11.6% after the impact of the interim dividend, still comfortably above the regulatory minimum.

The market reacted poorly. CBA shares dived 10.43% on the day to finish at $153.67, marking one of the bank's weakest sessions in years, as investors focused on the higher provisioning, the softer sequential profit run-rate, and broader concerns about the outlook for investor lending following the federal Budget.

Summary of CBA's third quarter 2026 trading update

CBA earnings – what to expect

The market will be looking for CBA to show that volume growth and credit quality held up in the second half (H2), following the more cautious March-quarter update.

Key financials – consensus

• Cash NPAT: ~$10.85 billion, up from $10.25 billion in the prior corresponding period (PCP).
• Final dividend: ~$2.65 (fully franked).
• Full-year dividend: ~$5.05, up from $4.85 in the PCP.

Key areas of focus

• Net interest margin trends under ongoing competitive pressure
• Loan impairment charges after the $316 million expense (including the $200 million provision top-up) in Q3
• Any signs of stress in arrears or household resilience, given the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)'s rate-hiking cycle and subdued consumer confidence
• Early commentary on the federal Budget changes – particularly the removal of negative gearing on established property and the reduction in the capital gains tax (CGT) discount. With the largest investor loan book among the majors, guidance on future investor lending demand will be closely watched
• Housing credit demand and early-stage loan stress, after NAB recently flagged a 15% drop in home loan applications and a rise in watch loans

As the largest bank and the first major to report full-year numbers, CBA will set the tone for the sector. The result needs to be clean, because the stock still trades at a rich premium to its peers.

CBA annual net income chart

CBA shares technical analysis

From the 2023 low at $86.98, CBA staged a spectacular rally of approximately 120%, peaking at $192.00 in late 2025. The move was fuelled by resilient banking fundamentals, strong offshore demand, and broader equity market strength.

Since that peak, the stock has spent the past year consolidating the gains. It is still too early to declare the correction complete.

A sustained break above trend-line resistance and the April high in the $184 – $186 area after earnings would suggest that a meaningful low is in place at the January 2026 trough of $146.98. That would swing the probabilities back in favour of the bulls and open the way for a retest of the $192.00 all-time high, with $200.00 as the next longer-term target.

While CBA remains below the $184 – $186 resistance zone, however, the risk of another leg lower towards $154.00 remains firmly on the table as the correction continues to play out.

CBA weekly chart

• _{Source: TradingView. The figures stated are as of 04 August 2026. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation.}