Bitcoin drops to two-week low as ETF flows and liquidations weigh​

​​​Bitcoin drops to two-week low

​Since the beginning of February, Bitcoin has navigated a markedly more unstable landscape, reflecting the interplay between macroeconomic recalibration, exchange-traded fund (ETF) flow volatility and renewed leverage-driven price swings.

​What initially appeared to be a continuation of January’s consolidation phase quickly evolved into a sharper corrective move, underscoring how even the most established digital asset remains tightly tethered to global liquidity conditions and investor risk appetite.

​From the 6th of February onwards, Bitcoin has been attempting to stabilise after its sharp January to early February drop. ETF flows have been central to the February narrative with spot Bitcoin ETFs experiencing alternating sessions of inflows and outflows as price volatility intensified. Some large legacy trusts recorded redemptions during down days, while newer spot products saw only moderate dip-buying. This pattern suggested tactical positioning rather than conviction-driven accumulation, reinforcing short-term price fragility.

​Leverage dynamics amplified the move lower. In the weeks leading into February, derivatives data indicated a gradual rebuild of long exposure in Bitcoin futures and perpetual swaps, as traders positioned for a breakout above key resistance zones. When prices failed to sustain upward momentum and instead broke below short-term technical supports, stop-losses were triggered and liquidations accelerated. Funding rates deteriorated quickly, and the forced unwinding of leveraged longs added to downside momentum, pushing Bitcoin lower than spot selling alone might have warranted.

​Geopolitical developments also played a supporting role in shaping sentiment. While heightened global tensions can at times bolster Bitcoin’s store-of-value narrative, they can equally drive demand for traditional safe havens such as US Treasuries and gold. In early February, the latter dynamic dominated. Gold prices strengthened, while Bitcoin failed to attract sustained defensive flows, reinforcing the perception that it remains a hybrid asset influenced by both speculative and macro forces.

​On-chain metrics have provided a more nuanced backdrop. Long-term holder supply has remained relatively steady, with little evidence of widespread capitulation among wallets holding Bitcoin for extended periods. Exchange balances have not surged dramatically, suggesting that the sell-off has been driven more by derivatives and tactical repositioning than by structural distribution from core investors. This distinction has been important in preventing disorderly price action despite heightened volatility.

​Corporate and institutional narratives have continued to evolve. Several publicly listed companies with Bitcoin exposure reiterated their treasury strategies in early February, maintaining allocations despite price weakness. Meanwhile, asset managers have continued to promote Bitcoin as part of diversified digital asset strategies, though with a more measured tone that acknowledges macro sensitivity.

​Despite the correction, Bitcoin has so far managed to hold above major long-term support areas, indicating that structural demand remains present at lower levels. The absence of panic-driven liquidation across spot markets contrasts with previous cycle downturns, suggesting that market structure has matured even as volatility persists.

​Looking ahead, Bitcoin’s trajectory through the remainder of February will likely hinge on macro data releases, bond yield stability and the consistency of ETF flows. A moderation in inflation prints or clearer signals of monetary easing could help restore confidence and support a recovery attempt. Conversely, further upside surprises in inflation or renewed tightening in financial conditions could keep Bitcoin under pressure, particularly if leveraged positioning rebuilds prematurely.

​For now, Bitcoin’s performance since the beginning of February underscores the asset’s evolving but still incomplete transition towards macro maturity. While institutional infrastructure and long-term holder conviction provide a structural foundation, near-term price action continues to be shaped by liquidity cycles, derivatives positioning and shifting global risk sentiment.

​Bitcoin bearish case:

​Heightened tensions between Iran and the US and renewed global tariff uncertainty provoked a sell-off to $64,293.98 on Monday morning, a two-week low.

​if fallen through, the psychological $60,000 area may be revisited. Below it another support zone may be found at $59,635.83 - $56,148.93. It consists of several weekly lows seen between March and September 2024.

​Bitcoin bullish case:

​As long as Bitcoin remains above its current February low at $60,132.75, a recovery may still unfold. For it to become feasible, a rise above last week's high at $68,698.02 would need to be seen. Only then may renewed attempts at breaking through the $70,040.75 – $73,757.39 resistance area be witnessed.

​A rise and daily close above the March 2024 peak at $73,757.39 may push the April 2025 low at $74,441 to the fore. If also exceeded, the March 2025 low at $76,702.93 could be reached as well.

​Short-term outlook:

Neutral with a bearish bias while below the 21 February high at $68,698.02 but above this week's $64,293.98 low.

​Medium-term outlook:

Neutral with a bearish bias while below the March 2024 high at $73,757.39 but above the $56,148.93 mid-August 2024 low; failure there might engage the $50,000 region and the August 2024 low at $49,217.00.

Bitcoin daily candlestick chart