a2 Milk FY26 earnings preview

a2 Milk overview

The a2 Milk Company (ASX:A2M) is a specialist dairy nutrition business best known for its a2™ branded milk and infant formula products that contain only the A2 beta-casein protein type and no A1 protein.

The company sells liquid milk, infant formula and other nutritional products across Australia, New Zealand, China and other international markets, with China remaining its most important growth engine.

When will a2 Mik report its latest earnings?

The a2 Milk Company is scheduled to release its full-year FY26 results on Monday, 17 August 2026.

The backdrop highlights from 1H26

a2 Milk delivered a strong first half, with revenue rising 18.8% to NZ$993.5 million and underlying net profit after tax (NPAT) jumping 19.6% to NZ$122.6 million. The company also lifted its interim dividend 35% to NZ11.5 cents per share.

Management upgraded full-year (FY26) guidance at the time, pointing to mid-double-digit revenue growth and confirming the business was on track to hit its long-held NZ$2 billion sales ambition a full year earlier than planned.

Chief executive officer (CEO) David Bortolussi captured the mood well:

‘Our upgraded outlook means we are now on track to achieve our $2 billion medium-term sales ambition in FY26, a full year ahead of plan. This is testament to the execution of our team and the strength of the a2™ brand.’

Investors responded positively to the combination of solid numbers and raised guidance, despite the backdrop of China’s declining birth rate, with a2 Milk shares finishing the session 6.81% higher at $9.10.

a2 Milk financial highlights 

Highlights from the most recent quarterlies / production results

On 13 April, the company issued a trading and supply-chain update that disappointed the market. Strong demand, freight disruptions, partly linked to the Middle East conflict, production backlogs at Synlait and longer customs clearance times created temporary shortages of China-label infant formula.

As a result, a2 Milk cut its FY26 guidance:

• Revenue growth lowered to low-to-mid double-digit %
• EBITDA margin cut to 14.0% - 14.5% (from 15.5% - 16.0%)
• NPAT expected to be similar to, or down on, FY25

The shares fell 13% that day to $8.04 and continued lower, eventually bottoming at $4.88 in early July.

By early July, the company reported that the earlier supply-chain issues had largely been resolved, with stock levels returning to target. Preliminary FY26 figures showed:

• Revenue of approximately NZ$1.97 billion (up more than 12% on FY25)
• EBITDA margin at the high end of the revised 14.0% - 14.5% range
• NPAT slightly higher than FY25

The shares initially surged as much as 5% to an intraday high of $8.10 before reversing to finish the day 4.4% lower at $7.37. 

What to expect from a2M’s FY26 earnings

The upcoming earnings result should largely confirm that full-year earnings came in line with, or slightly ahead of, the revised April guidance.

Beyond the numbers, investors will focus on several key areas:

• China infant formula recovery – How many customers who switched to competitor brands during the fourth quarter (Q4) FY26 supply shortages have returned, and how successful new user recruitment has been since stock levels normalised.
• Supply chain and margins – Any residual costs from the earlier disruptions, progress at the a2 Pokeno facility and early signs of whether margins can recover in FY27.
• US performance – Whether the US liquid milk business is making clearer progress towards meaningful profitability.
• FY27 outlook – Management’s commentary on the earnings trajectory and margin expectations for the year ahead will be closely watched.

Key financials – summary 

• Revenue: ≈ NZ$1.97 billion (+3.9% vs FY25) 
• Net Income / NPAT: ≈ NZ$195 million (−3.9% vs FY25) 
• EPS: ≈ NZ$0.28 
• Dividend: ≈ NZ$0.37 per share (ordinary), up from NZ$0.20 per share in the PCP.

a2 Milk income/underlying NPAT chart

a2 Milk technical analysis

After peaking at $9.97 following its February 2026 earnings release, a2 Milk shares fell more than 50% to a low of $4.88 in early July. That decline wiped out a significant portion of the gains made since the 2023 - 2024 recovery from the $3.70 area.

A rebound has since followed, lifting the share price back to $8.10, but the recovery has since lost momentum and the stock is currently trading around $6.92 ahead of its earnings.

Looking ahead, a sustained move above the $8.10 - $8.20 resistance area is needed to improve the technical picture and suggest a retest of the $9.97 record high is possible.

Be aware that while the share price remains below the $8.10 - $8.20 resistance area, a retest of the $4.70 - $4.90 support zone remains possible.

a2 Milk weekly chart

• _{Source: TradingView. The figures stated are as of 10 August 2026. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain, and is not to be taken as containing, any financial product advice or financial product recommendation.}