Where to next for the oil and gold price amid the escalating Middle East crisis?
The escalating Middle East crisis has sent shockwaves through markets with the oil and gold price shooting higher. What are the technical levels to look out for?
Escalating Middle East crisis sends shockwaves through markets
On June 13, 2025, Israel launched “Operation Rising Lion,” a large-scale pre-emptive military strike targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities and strategic military assets.
The attack resulted in the deaths of several high-ranking Iranian military officials and marked one of the most direct confrontations between the two nations to date.
In immediate retaliation, Iran deployed over 100 armed drones toward Israeli territory, all of which were reportedly intercepted by Israel’s air defence systems.
The confrontation has led to a sharp escalation in regional instability, prompting the closure of Israeli airspace and flight restrictions across several neighbouring countries including Jordan, Iraq, and Iran.
The geopolitical shock has triggered significant market volatility
Brent crude oil prices surged by more than 12%, briefly surpassing $77.00 per barrel, as investors priced in the risk of further disruption to global oil flows, especially through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global energy supply.
Simultaneously, gold prices rallied sharply, touching a near two-month high of $3,444.50 per troy ounce, as risk-averse investors sought safety in traditional haven assets amid fears of a broader conflict.
Possible escalation scenarios
If the conflict widens, several escalation pathways could significantly impact global markets and regional stability:
Iranian-backed militias in Lebanon, Syria, or Iraq could open new fronts against Israeli or US interests, dragging more actors into a multi-theatre confrontation. Most of these threats have been severely diminished by Israel’s large scale destruction of Hezbollah and incursion into Lebanon in 2024.
Nevertheless, Iran might attempt to disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, potentially causing oil prices to spike dramatically and trigger a global energy crisis.
Further Israeli precision strikes on Iranian territory and nuclear facilities are likely to prompt more direct Iranian missile retaliation, endangering key infrastructure and civilian populations.
Cyber warfare and proxy attacks on energy installations in the Gulf states could further inflame the situation, impacting oil output and transportation.
Markets remain on edge as diplomatic channels work frantically to prevent further escalation. Investors should brace for heightened volatility across commodities, equities, and currencies as the situation continues to evolve.
WTI crude oil price technical analysis
Since the beginning of June the oil price has risen by over 20%, by over 10% alone overnight, with an intraday high on WTI made at Friday’s $77.57 per barrel peak.
As Israel managed to apparently shoot down all Iranian retaliatory missiles, the oil price stabilised around its late February and April highs at $73.11-to-$72.22 while awaiting news of probably military escalation.
WTI crude oil daily candlestick chart
A rise above Friday’s $77.57 intraday high would likely push the August 2024 to January 2025 highs at $80.13-to-$80.73 to the fore.
In case of more serious escalation and if a rise through the $80.13-to-$80.73 resistance area were to occur, the July 2024 peak at $84.49 may be reached as well. This would represent another 15% rise in the oil price from current elevated levels.
WTI crude oil weekly candlestick chart
In case of de-escalation, the oil price is expected to give back some of its recent sharp gains and may slide back towards the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $68.47.
The price of WTI crude oil is unlikely to retest its major previous resistance area, now because of inverse polarity a support zone, at $65.25-to-$63.86, though. It consists of the early March low and the late April-to-May highs.
Technical analysis of the gold price
The gold price’s third straight day of gains on escalating geopolitical tensions has briefly taken it to a near 3-month high at $3,444.50 per troy ounce on Friday morning amid flight-to-safety flows.
The 6 May high at $3,435.00 currently caps renewed upside, though. Were it to be exceeded, gold’s all-time high at $3,500.00 would be back in the frame.
Gold daily candlestick chart
In case of a new record high being made the 161.8% Fibonacci extension of the 200-to-2011 uptrend, projected higher from the 2015 low, at 3,753 would represent the next technical upside target.
De-escalation may lead to the May-to-June uptrend line at $3,332.00 being revisited but only a fall through the 9 June low at $3,293.50 would void the recent advance in the gold price.
The long-term uptrend in the gold price will remain valid while the May low at $3,121.00 holds.
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