Technical analysis of the Nasdaq 100 as it surges while USD/JPY and Brent crude slip.
Macro update
Asia equities rebound on de-escalation hopes:
Regional markets rallied strongly as optimism grew that the Iran conflict could ease within weeks, with MSCI Asia ex-Japan up 2.7% and ending a four-day losing streak.
Korea and Japan lead gains:
The Kospi jumped as much as 5.5% and the Nikkei rose up to 3.9%, supported by stronger-than-expected Korean export data and improved Japanese business sentiment.
Wall Street posts strongest session since May 2025:
The S&P 500 climbed 2.9% and the Nasdaq surged 3.8% as investors priced in a potential path to de-escalation, led by gains in technology stocks.
Oil remains elevated despite easing hopes:
Brent crude rose close to $109 a barrel, with supply risks persisting due to infrastructure damage and disruption to flows through the Strait of Hormuz, before slipping below $100 on hopes of de-escalation.
Rate expectations shift towards easing:
Fed funds futures moved to price a 32% chance of a July rate cut, up from 7.5% the previous day, while the 10-year Treasury yield edged lower to around 4.30%..
Gold steady as uncertainty lingers:
Bullion held near two-week highs after a volatile March, with investors cautious over whether de-escalation will materialise and how it may impact inflation and monetary policy.
Nasdaq 100 rallied 3.8%
The Nasdaq 100 has seen its strongest daily rally since May 2025 on Tuesday with the accelerated mid-March-to-April downtrend line and 24 March low at 23,928 being in focus in case of momentum being sustained.
If overcome, the 25-to-26 March gap at 24,029-to-24,081 may get filled and the 24,289-to-24,337 resistance area be revisited.
Minor support may be spotted between the late July and August 2025 highs at 23,589-to-23,264 ahead of the 31 March 23,199 low.
Short-term outlook:
Bullish while above the 30 March low at 22,842
Medium-term outlook:
Bearish (with a short-term bullish bias) while below the 17 March high at 24,884
NASDAQ daily candlestick chart
USD/JPY slips through uptrend line
USD/JPY is seen coming off its ¥160.46 March peak - a level last seen in July 2024 - and in doing so slid through the February-to-March uptrend line at ¥159.46, so far to ¥158.28. While it holds, a minor bounce towards the ¥159.50-to-¥159.90 region may unfold.
A slip through ¥158.28 would likely put the ¥157.97-to-¥157.72 region on the map. While the next lower ¥157.51 mid-March low holds, the medium-term uptrend is deemed to be intact.
Short-term outlook:
Bearish while below the 31 March ¥159.97 high.
Medium-term outlook:
Bullish while above the 19 March low at ¥157.51
USD/JPY daily candlestick chart
Brent weighs on uptrend line
The price of Brent crude oil briefly slipped through its February-to-April downtrend line at $99.94 to Wednesday's $97.08 low before rising back above the psychological $100 per barrel level.
While Wednesday's intraday low at $97.08 holds, the $105 region may be revisited whereas a fall through this level may push the 23 March low at $92.62 to the fore.
Short-term outlook:
Bearish while below the 1 April $104.33 high
Medium-term outlook:
Bullish while above the 23 March $92.62 low
Brent daily candlestick chart
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