Dow nears resistance as GBP/USD range trades, US natural gas futures rally stalls

Macro Update

Asian equities rebound: MSCI’s Asia-Pacific index ex-Japan rose 2.6%, ending a four-day losing streak, while Japan’s Nikkei jumped 3.6% and South Korea’s Kospi surged more than 7% as risk appetite improved.

AI optimism returns: Nvidia’s stronger-than-expected revenue forecast boosted Asian chip suppliers, while Samsung Electronics rallied after its union suspended a planned strike that could have disrupted global semiconductor supply.

Oil steadies: Brent recovered to around $103 a barrel after recent sharp losses, with traders balancing hopes for renewed US-Iran peace talks against ongoing supply risks and inventory drawdowns.

Hormuz risks persist: Three supertankers passed through the Strait of Hormuz, but Iran tightened control over the waterway and announced a new maritime authority, keeping markets alert to further disruption.

Nvidia beats again: Nvidia delivered its 14th consecutive earnings beat, with revenue up 85% and data centre sales rising 92% to $75.2bn, while stronger profits, improved guidance, a higher dividend and $80bn in buybacks reinforced its central role in the AI trade despite concerns over dependence on Nvidia’s own ecosystem.

SpaceX files for IPO: SpaceX’s prospectus reportedly showed 2025 revenue of $18.7bn and an operating loss of $2.6bn, with the company targeting a potential $75bn raise at a valuation of up to $1.75tn as Starlink drives growth and Elon Musk retains voting control after listing.

Dow Jones probes resistance

The Dow Jones Industrial Average tries to reach and then overcome its 50,206 mid-May high, a rise above which would likely lead to the February peak at 50,513 being revisited.

Were this week's low at 49,241 to unexpectedly give way, though, the late April-to-May lows at 48,861-to-48,709 may be retested.

Short-term outlook: bullish while above the 20 May 49,241 low

Medium-term outlook: bullish while above the 29 April 48,709 low

Dow Jones daily candlestick chart

GBP/USD consolidates

GBP/USD's bounce off last week's $1.3303 low seems to have run out of steam around the crosses 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $1.3421.

While Wednesday's low at $1.3375 underpins, its high at $1.3463 may be revisited. If bettered, the $1.3500 region would likely be back in sight.

A fall through $1.3375 may lead to the $1.3300 region being revisited, though.

Short-term outlook: neutral while below $1.3463 but above $1.3375

Medium-term outlook: neutral while trading below its $1.3160-to-$1.3658 March-to-May extremes

GBP/USD daily candlestick chart

US natural gas futures capped by resistance

US natural gas futures' advance ran out of steam at 303.4, not far below its 305.6-to-307.9 mid-March highs.

Wednesday's Bearish Engulfing pattern points to a consolidation below these levels taking place and may lead to the 12 May high at 281.7 being back in sight.

Short-term outlook: toppish while below 303.4-to-307.9

Medium-term outlook: neutral with a bullish bias while above the 253.1 current May low but below its 322.9 March peak

US natural gas daily candlestick chart