Nasdaq 100 gunning for new record high as USD/JPY, Brent crude consolidate
Technical analysis of the Nasdaq 100 as it is aiming for a new record high while USD/JPY, Brent crude consolidate.
Macro update
Equities rebound: Asian stocks advanced, with MSCI Asia-Pacific up 0.9% and South Korea’s Kospi rising 2.1% to a record high, supported by optimism over potential US-Iran talks and renewed AI-driven demand.
Ceasefire uncertainty: Markets remain headline-sensitive as Iran signals it may join talks in Pakistan, though tensions persist following the US seizure of an Iranian cargo ship.
Oil pulls back: Brent crude slipped to roughly $90 per barrel after Monday’s surge, as investors bet negotiations could help ease supply disruptions despite ongoing constraints in the Strait of Hormuz.
Shipping disruption: Traffic through Hormuz remains restricted, with prolonged disruption risking further supply losses and potentially pushing prices towards $110 if sustained.
Fed focus: Attention shifts to Kevin Warsh’s Senate hearing, with scrutiny on his independence and views on monetary policy and balance sheet reduction.
Mixed risk signals: The dollar steadied, gold declined and bond yields edged higher, indicating a cautious improvement in sentiment as markets balance geopolitical risks against hopes for de-escalation.
Nasdaq 100 aims for record highs
There is no stopping the Nasdaq 100 which is expected to soon overcome its 17 April all-time high at 26,719, made close to a 161.8% Fibonacci extension target at 26,745. If exceeded, a 261.8% Fibonacci extension target at 28,860 will be in sight.
Support below its 20 April 26,413 low lies at the 26,400 16 April high.
Short-term outlook: bullish, targeting new record highs
Medium-term outlook: bullish while above the 7 April low at 23,780
Nasdaq 100 daily candlestick chart
USD/JPY range trades
USD/JPY is sideways trading in low volatility below its ¥159.53 Friday high but above last week's ¥157.59 low.
A rise above ¥159.53 is needed for last week's high at ¥159.86 to be reached, above which lies the previous week's high at ¥160.03.
Strong support sits at the ¥157.53-to-¥157.51 mid-March-to-April lows.
Short-term outlook: neutral outlook while below the 7 April ¥160.03 high but above the 19 March low at ¥157.51
Medium-term outlook: neutral with a bullish bias while above the 19 March low at ¥157.51
USD/JPY daily candlestick chart
Brent crude trades around the $90 mark
Brent crude flirts with the $90 region, slightly below which the 8 April low may find support at $88.79. Further potential support sits at the 17 April $84.20 low.
Resistance above the $91.16 April resistance line may be found around the 23-to-25 March lows at $92.62-to-$93.56.
Short-term outlook: bearish while below the 16 April $95.74 high
Medium-term outlook: neutral while below the 31 March $108.88 high but above the 17 April low at $84.20
Brent Crude daily candlestick chart
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