Employment data could make or break US dollar
With the US on the brink of recession, markets have been especially attentive to employment data. With Nonfarm Payrolls coming, take a look at where the dollar is positioned right now and what the effects could be.
Key points
- September Nonfarm Payrolls are expected to be 170k
- Tuesday's Job openings report brought volatility into USD/JPY
- JPY, AUD and CAD are within 200 pips of yearlong extremes vs USD
What to expect from Nonfarm Payrolls
Friday morning's data release could move markets if the number differs greatly from forecasts. The US is expected to have added 170,000 jobs in September. With strong numbers throughout the year, a lower number this week could signal a recession is on the way and an unemployment rate above 4% may be approaching. On the flip side, a strong jobs number may tell the Fed that another rate hike is necessary ahead of next week's inflation data.
Already this week, employment data has impacted forex markets. Tuesday's JOLTs job openings came in higher than expected, causing USD/JPY to reach 150.00. In the moments that followed, a sharp sell off from speculation of a BoJ intervention caused the pair to move over 250 pips before settling near 149.00. Many other USD pairs remain near yearlong extremes including AUD and CAD. Both pairs are trading within 200 pips of their 12-month extremes, though Canadian dollar is strengthening against USD while Australian dollar is near its lows.
How to trade US dollar
- Open an account to get started, or practice on a demo account
- Choose your forex trading platform
- Open, monitor, and close positions on USD pairs
Trading forex requires an account with a forex provider like IG. USD pairs can be found in IG's platform under the 'USD Pairs' pairs tab. Many traders also watch major forex pairs like GBP/USD and USD/JPY for potential opportunities based on economic events such as inflation releases or interest rate decisions. Economic events can produce more volatility for forex pairs, which can mean greater potential profits and losses as risks can increase at these times.
You can help develop your forex trading strategies using resources like IG’s Trading Academy. Once your strategy is developed, you can follow the above steps to opening an account and getting started trading forex.
Your profit or loss is calculated according to your full position size. Leverage will magnify both your profits and losses. It’s important to manage your risks carefully as losses can exceed your deposit. Ensure you understand the risks and benefits associated with trading leveraged products before you start trading with them. Trade using money you’re comfortable losing.
What are Nonfarm Payrolls?
Non-farm payrolls are a monthly statistic representing how many people are employed in the US, in manufacturing, construction and goods companies. They can also be known as non-farms, or NFP.
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