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Today was not supposed to be about Greece but no-one told Mr Varoufakis that, as his comments surrounding the looming Greek referendum gained considerable traction around Europe’s trading floors, stating that he and other members of the cabinet would find it hard to remain in situ should the country vote ‘yes’. The latest polls might have given him a little comfort that his countrymen’s thinking was in line with his own, but the IG binary still strongly indicates a ‘yes’ victory with a 69% chance.
BP has finally managed to thrash out an agreement with the five US States affected in the Gulf of Mexico disaster, with today’s sum of $18.7 billion bringing the total costs to date up to almost $44 billion. The amount is arguably not the major aspect digested by the markets, but more the fact that the company has taken a sizeable step towards being able to finally draw a line in the sand over the whole sorry affair.
Due to Friday’s US bank holiday the non-farm payrolls figures were brought forward a day and finally offered an alternative headline grabber to the monotony of Greece. With jobs undershooting expectations you can’t help but feel that Greece’s markets stalling sentiment has worked its way across the Atlantic from Europe. Revisions from the previous month have also been downward and this rather backs up the cautionary ‘wait and see’ mindset that has become prevalent with the voting members of the Federal Open Market Committee.
As a consequence of today’s data, the inferred expectations of a rate rise in September has now dropped from 17% to just 10% giving greater credence to rates not rising until 2016.