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The days of European losses driving weak US markets have finally been turned on their head, and at last the sea of red receded somewhat to provide a bounce for the likes of the FTSE and DAX. Greek fears persist and despite yesterday's welcome rally, Greece is quickly unravelling as news comes out of an emergency call at the European Central Bank in the face of the possibility that Greek banks may not open on Monday.
Greek mattresses are growing considerably higher as a slow-motion run on the banks takes place, which has seen two billion euros withdrawn in the past three days. While the ECB can provide further ELA to temporarily raise reserves, such outflows will only ever grow, and it's clear that the Greek banking system may follow the government which is equally at risk as the country unless capital controls are introduced. For this reason, I expect any significant rallies in Europe to be sold into today given the possibility that the Greek banks could remain closed on Monday, heightening an already touchy situation.
One man’s hurricane is another's breeze and the relative distance of the US from the Greek crisis means the US markets are looking relatively more buoyant than their European counterparts right now. The fundamental calendar has eased off for the final day of the week, and thus we are likely to continue being dominated by the relatively dovish outlook taken from the Fed on Wednesday.
With the weaknesses stemming from this Greek crisis largely being ring-fenced, any weakness in the US is seen merely as a natural retracement in what has been a consistent story of strength in the US markets over recent years. As such, the divergence between US strength and European weakness is likely to grow as we approach the end of this month without a Greek deal, which should translate into strong a US dollar in coming weeks.
Ahead of the open, we expect the Dow Jones to open 20 points higher at 18,135.