The week ahead: 16-20 June

A look ahead to the major events, economic releases and company news expected next week.

US Federal Reserve
Source: Bloomberg

The Federal Reserve meeting this week struck a less hawkish tone, providing the rationale for substantial gains in equity markets. As ever, no dip is too small to be bought and equity markets are once again looking to break to new record highs.

Gold and silver shorts were caught out by the Fed's tone, sending the yellow metal surging past $1300 once again. In commodities, Iraq continues to dominate news, and as the crisis intensifies there the concerns about higher oil prices will act as a drag on gains in equity indices.

Economic reports


China manufacturing PMI (June, preliminary), 2.35am: Data from the industrial sector is expected to show slight growth, with the index rising to 49.7 from 49.4, but still in contraction territory. Market to watch: China A50, AUD/USD, copper, FTSE 100

French, German, eurozone services, manufacturing and composite PMIs (June, preliminary): 8am - 9am: These numbers will help gauge economic growth in the eurozone, with small improvement generally expected. Market to watch: Euro Stoxx 50, DAX, CAC 40, EUR/USD, EUR/GBP

US manufacturing PMI (June, preliminary), 2.45pm: This is forecast to weaken to 56 from 56.4 in May. Market to watch: Dow Jones, S&P 500, GBP/USD, EUR/USD

US existing home sales (May), 3pm: Home sales are forecast to rise to an annual rate of 4.73 million in May, from 4.65 million in April. Market to watch: Dow Jones, S&P 500, GBP/USD, EUR/USD


German IFO (June), 9am: This is a key monthly survey of the business climate in Germany. A slight drop for June is expected, continuing the trend from May. Market to watch: DAX, EUR/USD

US S&P/Case-Shiller home price index (April), 2pm: This survey of house price growth in 20 US cities is forecast to show a weakening of prices, with the rate of increase dropping back to 0.85% from 1.24% in March. However, the fact that the data is two months old limits its usefulness. Market to watch: Dow Jones, S&P 500, GBP/USD, EUR/USD

Richmond Fed manufacturing index (June), new home sales (May), 3pm: An economic survey of about 190 manufacturing plants within the Richmond Federal Reserve Bank region that examines conditions in the manufacturing industry. It is forecast to drop back to six from seven in May. Market to watch: Dow Jones, S&P 500, GBP/USD, EUR/USD


US durable goods orders (May), Q1 GDP (third reading), 1.30pm: Durable goods orders refer to new orders placed with manufacturers for delivery of hard goods in the future. Excluding the volatile transportation sector, orders are expected to rise 0.3% from 0.1% in April. Market to watch: Dow Jones, S&P 500, GBP/USD, EUR/USD

US composite and services PMI (June, preliminary), 2.45pm: These indices of growth assist in determining the strength of the US economy. Market to watch: Dow Jones, S&P 500, GBP/USD, EUR/USD


US initial jobless claims, 1.30pm: Jobless claims in the previous week are expected to rise to 314K from 312K in the preceding week. Market to watch: Dow Jones, S&P 500, GBP/USD, EUR/USD


Japan CPI, jobless rate (May), 12.30am: This flood of Japanese data is forecast to show the unemployment rate remaining steady at 3.6%, while price growth rises to 3.7% from 3.4% in April. The latter would indicate the Abenomics programme is becoming more successful. Market to watch: Nikkei 225, USD/JPY

UK Q1 GDP (final reading), 9.30am: Growth in the UK is not expected to be revised in this last reading, remaining at 3.1% YoY and 0.8% QoQ. Market to watch: GBP/USD, EUR/GBP

German CPI (June, preliminary), 1pm: Price growth in Germany is forecast to bounce back for June, up to 0.2% from -0.1% in May MoM, and 1% from 0.9% YoY. Market to watch: EUR/USD, EUR/GBP

US Univ. of Michigan consumer confidence (June, final), 2.55pm: A survey of consumer confidence conducted by the University of Michigan. The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (MCSI) uses telephone surveys to gather information on consumer expectations regarding the overall economy. The last reading for June is forecast to rise to 82 from 81.2. Market to watch: Dow Jones, S&P 500, GBP/USD, EUR/USD


Company announcements


Carnival, Petrofac, Hertz Global Holdings


Stagecoach Group, Barnes & Noble, Monsanto


Carphone Warehouse, Dixons Retail, Standard Chartered, John Wood Group, NIKE



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