This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
We saw a rally at the end of last week, in spite of Friday’s unequivocally positive employment data that bolstered the case for tapering sooner rather than later. Today the stock market has risen again, even after James Bullard, the President of the St Louis Fed, said that he considers a small taper to be an appropriate response to advances in unemployment.
Mr Bullard said that ‘a small taper might recognize labour market improvement while still providing the committee the opportunity to carefully monitor inflation during the first half of 2014.’ He also said that inflation ‘continues to surprise to the downside’. This suggestion that the Fed might pause after beginning to taper perhaps sweetens the pill for the stock market, especially considering how stubbornly low inflation has remained in recent months.
The Fed will no doubt be wary of hazards on the road ahead posed by Washington, with fiscal policy having acted as a constraint on economic growth this year and with more potential wrangles up ahead. There have been reports today that lawmakers in Washington are drawing close to a 2014 budget deal, though, which could remove the risk of another shutdown.
Reportedly, leaders in Congress’ official budget committee are close to striking a deal to fund the government for the year ahead and might pass the measure before Congress adjourns for the year.