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The winter Europe has just had was one of the mildest for seven years and, at the moment, natural gas supplies in the EU are at a maximum. With reserves at their limit, it would roughly give the EU nations a forty-day buffer if the taps were switched off from Russia; an event that is looking less and less likely. Even with that being the case, the markets have stepped up their acquisition of Russian gas over the week as a precursor to a turn for the worse. With the Crimean parliament electing to join Russia, and the Crimea-wide public vote set to happen, it shows that this is far from an aggressive takeover.
The spot price of natural gas is currently some 14.5% off its four-month highs and with spring around the corner demand will inevitably begin to reduce. The possibility of over-supply to the market is considerable, and the drift in the spot price likely; however, the possibility of military action in the East would give good grounds for implementing guaranteed stops.