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Gold locked in by 200-hour SMA
The brief bounce in gold last week has run its course, it appears, with fresh downside now on the way. The commodity has been a prisoner of the 200-hour simple moving average ($1164) for a number of sessions, failing to break above this indicator, with today being no exception.
At present I am watching the lows of 8 July around $1150, with a break below here opening the way to fresh downside in the direction of $1148. I would remain of a bearish disposition unless and until the metal breaks through the 6 July highs around $1175.
Silver facing similar battle as gold
Silver is facing its own battle with the 200-hour SMA ($15.50), having fallen back below it despite a spike over the course of the weekend.
The bounce off the lows of $15 last week continues, with a target of $16 looking doable at present. A move above here would see the metal testing the 200-day SMA ($16.50) once again.
Brent looks ready to slump
Having bounced during the past week Brent crude now looks poised for a move lower. $59.80 continues to act as resistance and will be the litmus test for any rally, but ultimately a move higher here still needs to clear the 100-day SMA at $61.66. A test of the $56 area should be watched in coming days, with a break of this area heading towards $52.50.
US light crude's rally of last week has run its course, with gains petering out around $53/barrel. With Iran and Libya news on the schedule for this week bearish momentum may develop and see the commodity test the lows around $50.60.
With the daily relative strength index still bearish and stochastics rolling over once again it looks like the downside in crude is here to stay.