EUR/USD begins to look relatively bullish ahead of CPI and European Central Bank announcements, while USD/JPY triangle provides a good breakout play.

Euro and US dollar notes
Source: Bloomberg

EUR/USD drifts lower after bounce

EUR/USD has drifted lower overnight, following on from a substantial bounce just below the $1.0565 support level. At first glance, this looks more like a retracement or consolidation than a reversal lower, and this would point towards the potential for further gains. However, the crucial level of note here is $1.0641, which represents the first swing high out of this downtrend.

A close above $1.0641 would be a bullish indicator, with the next resistance levels at $1.0674 and $1.0689. Though, bear in mind that today we have the release of the eurozone CPI, while tomorrow brings the big ECB meeting, so fundamentals will a big concern. Also, given the long-term downtrend, any upside momentum would be seen as a retracement of the wider move lower which is expected to continue in the medium term.

GBP/USD resurgence loses steam

The strong rally seen here at the start of this week has turned into somewhat of a whimper, with the price creating a lower high. Thus for now we have little direction and would need the price to either break through $1.5087 for a more bullish outlook, or below $1.5053 for a bearish view. Support levels of note are $1.5053, $1.5027 and $1.5000, while resistance levels are at $1.5087, $1.5107 and $1.5128.

USD/JPY triangle dictates direction

USD/JPY is trading within a symmetrical triangle formation, which has been building over the past three trading days. As with any pattern, it makes sense to expect further respect of these boundaries until it is clear that we have seen a breakout. However, more important than a trendline break is a move through the first point of support or resistance.

Therefore a bullish outlook emerges with a closed candle above ¥123.19, with resistance levels of ¥123.27 and ¥123.34 in view. Alternately, a closed candle below ¥122.77 would bring a bearish view, where support levels of ¥122.64, ¥122.50 and ¥122.30 become crucial. Until either of those breaks occur, I expect this pattern to remain in play.

AUD/USD could break higher once more

AUD/USD has been a standout performer this week, rising 150 points over the course of Monday and Tuesday. The break higher yesterday brought about a period of consolidation overnight. Yet with the doji candle set on the four-hour chart, there is a possibility that the rally could continue apace.

One worry is the overbought stochastic which has been a good indicator prior to the past two selloffs. However, for now, the bullish outlook remains unless the price closes below $0.7277 support.

A closed hourly candle above $0.7320 would be a tentative signal that this bull run is set to continue, where resistance levels of $0.7343, $0.7363 and $0.7382 come into view. A closed hourly candle below $0.7277 would bring a more bearish view for now, with $0.7250, $0.7224 and $0.7200 the next support levels of note.

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