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USD/JPY slips below 200-DMA
The yen was carrying all before it on Friday, but since the announcement of US air strikes in Iraq and reports of the withdrawal of Russian troops from the Ukraine border, there has been a recovery in the US dollar.
The week has started quietly for this currency pair but with Japanese GDP on the list for tomorrow, and then a raft of Chinese data on Wednesday, there is room for more volatility to creep back into the course of events.
Last week the Bank of Japan erred on the side of caution in its monetary policy meeting, arguing that the economic outlook remained robust. However, it left the door open to further easing and this has given the dollar some additional support. The view should receive further assistance as GDP data is expected to show a sharp deterioration in economic growth in Japan, slumping to -1.8% from 1.6% in the previous quarter.
On the daily chart we have seen USD/JPY slip below the 200-day moving average once again, but support has come in around the ¥102 level and the 50-DMA has held for now as well.
Thus, a close back above ¥102.30 could signal another move back in the direction of ¥103, the highs from late July, while any drop will need to clear ¥101.50. Even then, the big ¥100 will come into play as it has done throughout 2014.