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The UK has enjoyed a four-day weekend and has had plenty of time for Friday’s disappointing non-farm payrolls figures to be absorbed and a calm assessment reached. Initially the headline figures were unsatisfactory, however the longer-term trend of US unemployment is still very strong and hourly earnings are looking firmer too. Just as one swallow doesn’t make a summer it is unlikely that the Federal Reserve will baulk too much at these latest figures – especially as it is so prone for revision. Rather than bring into question of a later start date to the US interest rate it is more likely to have ensured that it is not brought forward.
Having seen weakness for a few days now in the dollar helping push GBP/USD higher, it looks like we may well see the top end of the recent range $1.500 tested again. However, I am not sure I have seen anything that alters my opinion this recent bounce is not just offering us better levels with which to short, only a close above $1.500 would give me reason to question this.