AUD/USD on shaky ground

Price at time of writing – 0.903.

In my last update on the AUD/USD in August 2013 the cross-rate was 0.8987. Today I analyse whether any change of view is required.

Interestingly, at current levels the cross-rate has barely changed since 27 August 2013. It does, however, disguise some volatility over the intervening six-month period.

Initially the AUD/USD went up to test resistance at 0.969, before retreating quickly. The subsequent fall then took the price down to a low of 0.866 in late January. Despite this volatility, it is the initial break below 0.969 that remains the major influence on the short-term chart. That break allowed me to double the initial fall of 12.5% (from its all-time high) to one of 25%, implying a minimum target of 0.8299 in due course. However, this target is isolated and the major support remains the cluster of percentages centred around 0.793.

The trigger for the next phase of AUD weakness will be a break below 0.8819. We should then expect to see the currency fall directly to my minimum target at 0.8299.

Recommendation: sell the AUD/USD. Initial target 0.8299. The longer-term target can remain at 0.793. Stop-losses can be placed on a break above 0.969.

AUD/USD chart

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