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We have trend, momentum price action, fundamentals and sentiment working against the Aussie right now, but the key question is whether we get a short covering counter-rally. The probability of a rate cut from the RBA by the August meeting has increased to 62%, while the implied probability of a rate hike in the US continues to fall. Key terms of trade (iron ore and steel) are in free-fall and the speculative players are still net long AUD.
Last week’s break of the head and shoulders pattern targets sub 72c. The pair is holding below the October and December former double top, so if we see another acceleration in selling then I would look to jump on board. Key support comes in at $0.7331 and the 50% retracement of the 14.8% rally between January to April. Any upside should be limited to $0.7450.