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South Africa 40 Cash Index price forecast: waiting for a breakout

The price now trades within a narrow range between levels 65100 (support) and 66450 (resistance).

Source: Bloomberg

South Africa 40 Cash Index

Source: IG charts
Source: IG charts

The bearish reversal (circled blue) from overbought territory highlighted in our previous note did confirm, resulting in the South Africa 40 Cash Index trading to the 65100-support target.

The price now trades within a narrow range between levels 65100 (support) and 66450 (resistance).

Traders might wait for a break of one of these levels before considering a new directional trade.

When the breakout scenario presents itself we will update our view with targets and failure levels.

No cash adjustment expected

Traders will note that the South Africa 40 Cash Index is not expected to adjust for a dividend in the underlying this week (commencing 13 November 2023).

South Africa 40 Cash Index (previous)

Source: IG charts
Source: IG charts

The reversal highlighted in our previous note saw the South Africa 40 Cash Index rally though both the initial upside targets before finding resistance at the 67580 level.

Currently we see a bearish reversal forming off this level and from overbought territory. We are looking for a close below the 66450 level to confirm the reversal.

In this scenario, 65100 becomes the initial downside support target from the move, while a close above the 67580 level might be used as a stop loss consideration for the setup.

Small cash adjustment expected

Traders will note that the South Africa 40 Cash Index is expected to adjust for a dividend in the underlying this week (on Tuesday the 7th of November 2023), currently estimated at 10.3 points.

This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Ltd and IG Markets South Africa Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

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