This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
This latest twist regarding the dispute over Crimea has seen traders continue their risk-off stance, and a fresh wave of selling pressure has helped the DAX hit five-week lows. There seems to be little chance of this dispute being resolved quickly, and sanctions against Russia look inevitable. Sunday will see Crimea hold a referendum to decide if its people want to remain with Ukraine or join Russia. Considering its historical ties with Russia and the current fiscal woes of Ukraine, there is every chance it will choose Russia.
This morning has also seen the release of monthly industrial production figures that are down 0.2%. January’s rise of 1.8% is the only blip in the last five months, while production in the EU has continued to shrink. This has come at a time when traders continue to see worrying signs from China. The number of defaulting companies has increased, and the panic has manifested itself into an aggressive selloff of copper, now down to three-and-a-half year lows.
All of this would point towards a retest of the 9000 level, which was last seen in early February and previously in mid-December. In both cases the buyers came back, but any close below this level would see their resolve severely tested.