USD/JPY consolidating around Y97.00 level

Despite an aggressive stimulus policy in place, the lack of new stimulus plans to help override the debt market volatility from the Bank of Japan has allowed traders to see that perhaps the weakness in the yen to date has been exaggerated.

The potential tapering of quantitative easing from the US Federal Reserve, which may come as early as September of this year, does tend to add up to a clear long USD/JPY trade, fundamentally speaking. The notion that the BoJ is a small player when up against the mighty Fed in terms of ability to buy bonds tends to test this theory.

Japan’s machinery orders have disappointed the market, declining by 8.8% versus the 8.6% expected. On the positive side, the Corporate Goods Price Index (CGPI) points to inflation; it was shy of the estimate but still implies that the aggressive tactics employed by the BoJ are taking traction.

To resume the overall bullish trend, I’d ideally prefer to see a rise back towards the 99.00 level; this would bring the longer term trend line back into play. For now, I expect that we will find resistance around 99.90/100.00.

Should the 96.50 fail at this juncture, I would expect the 95.00 level to offer support once again.

Spot FX USD/JPY chart

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