This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
There had been plenty of speculation around what action Turkey would take after we learned of a surprise 25bp rate hike by the Reserve Bank of India. The central bank of Turkey hiked the overnight lending rate to 12% (from 7.75%) and the overnight borrowing rate to 8% (from 3.5%). Additionally, the repo rate was raised to 10% (from 4.5%) and a weekly repo rate of 10% will be used in funding the banks. This was much more aggressive than what the market and even the most hawkish analysts were expecting. This move is aimed at stabilising the TRY and keep inflation under control.
Lira gains against the majors
The result was a big jump in the Turkish lira as USD/TRY dropped to 2.174, its lowest level since January 14. The moves are quite similar in all the TRY crosses, with the lira gaining ground against the EUR, JPY and GBP as well. There is a strong chance that we’ll see some of these moves extended once European trade commences later today. As far as USD/TRY is concerned, focus will switch to the US where the Fed’s meeting is set to be completed. Near-term resistance for the pair is in the 2.16 region and we might see some stability around there or even a potential bounce should the Fed come in hawkish.
Plenty of central bank action
Central bank meetings have been the key theme this week and this is set to ramp up over the next couple of days, with the Fed, South Africa and Bank of New Zealand the key ones to watch. The Fed decision has analysts split but there is a growing camp that feels the Fed will taper by another $10 billion evenly split between mortgage-backed securities and treasuries. After that sharp miss in the non-farm payrolls data recently, it’ll be interesting to see if this makes any difference at all to the Fed’s commentary on economic assessment.