The Week Ahead

20 April - 24 April 2015

A regular look at local and international economic data, major events, economic releases and company news expected in the week to come.

By Shaun Murison,  Market Analyst

 

Shares overview

Source: IG Insight, as of 17/04/2015

Top gainers

Resource counters are breathing a short-term sigh of relief as commodity prices have started to rebound while the dollar loses ground against most currencies following weaker economic data.

Oil has rallied to a yearly high and added more than 15% in April thus far. Continuing conflict in Yemen, a weaker dollar, indications that U.S shale producers are under severe pressure and speculation that OPEC is in discussions with other major oil producers (such as Russia) to cut supply have supported the move in oil.

Sasol’s share price has found renewed near-term vigour as a result as has MTN’s share price. The bulk of MTN earnings are domiciled in Nigeria, a country reliant on oil exports for economic health. 

Top Decliners

After reaching an all-time high on Monday and trading above the R2000 share mark intraday, Naspers’ share price gains were more than offset as the week progressed, following a move on its Chinese listed counterpart Tencent. Founder and chairman of Tencent, Mr Ma Huateng, was reported to have sold more than $400m worth of the company shares which caused short-term panic and in turn significant selling in both Tencent Holdings and Naspers.

Kumba Iron Ore remains out of favour as reiterated last week. Investors will be interested to note the company’s last quarter production and sales data scheduled for release on Thursday the 23rd of April.

Sanlam losses are perhaps misleading as the share adjusted going ex-dividend on Monday.

INET BFA's weekly Broker Bonsensus on the top traded shares.

Click to view this week's broker consensus

 

 

DATE COMPANY EVENT AMOUNT
20-Apr Standard Bank Ex-Dividend R3.39
20-Apr Mondi Ltd Ex-Dividend R3.79
22-Apr BHP Billiton PLC Q1 operational review n/a
23-Apr DRDGold Ltd Q3 earnings

n/a

23-Apr Kumba Iron Ore Ltd Q1 corporate sales and production n/a
23-Apr Sibanye Gold Ltd Q1 operating update n/a
23-Apr Amplat Q1 production update n/a
23-Apr Iliad Africa Ltd Ex-Dividend R0.22

Source: Economic Calendar, as of 17/04/2015

 

Market overview

Local Data

The monthly roundup of sales data, for the retail sector, was mostly upbeat as the data exceeded expectation for the most part.

Retail trade sales (measured in real terms) increased by 4.2% year-on-year in February 2015. The main contributors to the 4.2% increase were general dealers and retailers in hardware, paint and glass. Wholesale trade sales did however show a minor 0.4% contraction year-on-year (February 2015).

Measured in nominal terms (current prices), motor trade sales increased by 0.6% year-on-year in February 2015. Positive annual growth rates were recorded for used vehicle sales (16.7%), sales of accessories (8.6%), convenience store sales (5.7%) and new vehicle sales (1.8%).

International Data

China kicked the week off with lacklustre trade balance data in which both imports and exports showed double-digit declines, equating to only a marginal trade surplus for the region. This was followed up with first quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data on Wednesday, which showed economic growth to be at the lower end of analyst’s expectations at 7%. Weaker economic data out of China has however been greeted by strong gains in equity markets as the expectation of further stimulus from the Peoples Bank of China (PBOC) is increased.

In the U.S., dollar weakness would suggest that the summation of economic data weighed to the negative. Month-on-month core retail and retail sales data fell short of consensus, as did the building permits and housing starts data. While PPI data showed low levels of inflation at a factory level, CPI data showed inflation to be in line with consensus at 0.2%. CPI data now witnesses an increased relevance in markets at present, as Fed chair Mrs Janet Yellen has indicated its importance relating to when the rate tightening cycle may commence in the U.S. 

The week ahead

The new week will see a continued focus on Chinese data in lure of further easing expectations with HSBC Manufacturing PMI data scheduled for release on Thursday.

While a manufacturing and services PPI data is also scheduled for release out of Europe, this is likely to be overshadowed by any news relating to Greece, relating to its status as part of the Eurozone.

Locally we await CPI data and will have an opportunity to reassess the state of local miners as BHP Billiton, Amplats, DRDGold and Sibanye Gold all release quarterly production updates.

Date Time Region Event Previous
21-Apr 11:00 EUR German ZEW economic sentiment 54.8
21-Apr 11:00 EUR ZEW economic sentiment 62.4
22-Apr 10:00 GBP MPC official bank rate votes 0-0-9
22-Apr 10:30 GBP MPC asset purchase facility votes 0-0-9
22-Apr 16:00 US Existing home sales 4.88m
22-Apr 16:30 US Crude oil inventories 1.3m
22-Apr 10:00 SA CPI m/m 0.60%
22-Apr 10:00 SA CPI y/y 3.90%
23-Apr 15:45 CNY HSBC flash manufacturing PMI 49.6
23-Apr 09:00 EUR French flash manufacturing PMI 48.8
23-Apr 09:00 EUR French flash services PMI 52.4
23-Apr 10:00 EUR Flash manufacturing PMI 52.2
23-Apr 10:00 EUR Flash services PMI 54.2
23-Apr 10:30 GBP Retail sales m/m 0.70%
23-Apr 14:30 US Weekly unemployed claims 294k
23-Apr 15:45 US Flaah manufacturing PMI 55.7
23-Apr 16:00 US New home sales 539k
24-Apr 10:00 EUR German IFO business climate 107.9
24-Apr 14:30 US Core durable goods orders m/m

-0.60%

24-Apr 14:30 US Durable goods orders m/m -1.10%

Source: Economic Calendar, as of 17/04/2015

 

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Broker consensus

Source: INET BFA, as of 17/04/2015

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