The Week Ahead

7 - 11 September 2015

A look at local and international economic data, major events, economic releases and company news expected in the week to come.

By Shaun Murison,  Market Analyst


Shares overview

Top Gainers

The Bidvest Group has outperformed fellow blue chip peers following the release of the company’s full-year results. The Group saw strong sales growth in most of its divisions, although the stand out performance was realized from the food services operations, particularly in Europe and the U.K. Bidvest Group sales increased by 11% and operating profit by 8.6% over the full-year reporting period. A gross final dividend of 483c per share has been declared.

Anglo American Platinum (Amplats) is said to be in advanced talks with Sibanye Gold Limited in lieu of selling off its Rustenburg assets. In restructuring efforts, amidst a difficult trading environment, Amplats is looking at the possible sale or separate listing of the aforementioned assets.

Top Decliners

The Mr Price Group saw a single day sell-off in excess of 13% following the release of a 21-week trading update. The negative reaction followed significantly slower than expected sales growth of 9% in the reporting period. The group has cited lower levels of consumer confidence, some poor fashion calls and the late onset of winter as being amongst the reasons for the slower than expected sales growth, which was realized. 

The Sanlam Group saw normalized headline earnings per share increasing a marginal 4% over their interim reporting period. The strong performance in the comparative period was highlighted as providing a strong base of comparison while economic headwinds, particularly in South Africa (the groups largest market), were also said to have further dulled the current results.

Source: IG Insight, as of 04/09/2015

Date Company Event Amount
07-Sep Adapt IT Holdings Ltd Ex-Dividend R0.109
07-Sep AVI Ltd Full-year 2015 Preliminary results n/a
07-Sep Barclays Africa Group Ltd Ex-Dividend R4.50
07-Sep BHP Billiton Plc Ex-Dividend $0.68889
07-Sep Blue Label Telecoms Ltd Ex-Dividend R0.31
07-Sep City Lodge Hotels Ltd Ex-Dividend R2.30
07-Sep Emira Property Fund Ex-Dividend R0.6962
07-Sep Exxaro Resources Ltd Ex-Dividend R0.65
07-Sep Gold Fields Ltd Ex-Dividend R0.04
07-Sep Nedbank Group Ltd Ex-Dividend R5.37
07-Sep Standard Bank Group Ltd Ex-Dividend R3.03
07-Sep Shoprite Holdings Ltd Ex-Dividend R2.43
07-Sep Sasol Ltd Full-year 2015 results n/a
07-Sep Truworths International Ltd Ex-Dividend R1.69
08-Sep Steinhoff International Holdings Ltd Full-year 2015 results n/a
09-Sep MMI Holdings Ltd Full-year 2015 results n/a
10-Sep Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd Full-year 2015 results n/a
10-Sep Discovery Ltd Full-year 2015 results n/a
10-Sep RMB Holdings Ltd Full-year 2015 results n/a

Source: Economic Calendar, as of 04/09/2015

INET BFA's weekly Broker Bonsensus on the top traded shares.

Click to view this week's broker consensus

Market overview

Local Data

South Africa’s trade balance data revealed a R397m deficit in July, while the previous month’s (June) trade surplus was revised lower to R5.5bn from R5.8bn. The figure sees a 12% increase in imports with only a 4.7% increase in exports resulting in the deficit figure. The accumulated deficit for 2015 is now considered at R25.2bn which is less than half that realized over the same period in 2014.

International Data

In China, manufacturing PMI data was slightly below consensus alluding to industry contraction, although the real disappointment to markets was the Caixin Services PMI data while declined significantly from the previous months reading and was far short of consensus estimates. The latter part of the week saw Chinese markets closed to mark the anniversary of Japan’s surrender in WWII.

In Europe, the European Central Bank (ECB) implied that it could expand and/or extend the current stimulus measures in place if necessary, as slower growth in China and emerging markets could negatively impact an already fragile recovery in the Eurozone. The ECB has already embarked on a bond-purchasing program until September 2016 to the amount of around $1 trillion.

In the U.S., trade balance data reflected a smaller than expected deficit of $41.9bn. ISM manufacturing PMI data fell short of consensus, although the services PMI data came in ahead of expectation. The all-important jobs data out of the world’s largest economy fell short of estimates with 173 000 (est. 215 000) new jobs being added to the non-farming payroll. The unemployment rate did however drop to the lowest rate (5.1%)witnessed  in more than seven years.

The week ahead

The new week will see markets anticipating the reawakening of Chinese markets after being closed for the latter part of this week. China is set to report all-important trade balance data on Tuesday and inflation data on Wednesday.

In the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) and consumer sentiment data will be closely monitored at the end of the week (Friday). Further indications around the health of South Africa’s mining and manufacturing sectors will be assessed in Thursday’s production and sales reports. 

Date Time Region Event Previous Estimation
07-Sep 08:00 SA Gold & foreign exchange reserves (gross) - $45.82bn
07-Sep 08:00 SA Gold & foreign exchange reserves (net) - $41.01bn
08-Sep TBC CNY Trade balance - 43.0B
09-Sep 10:30 GBP Manufacturing production m/m - 0.20%
10-Sep 03:30 CNY CPI y/y - 1.60%
10-Sep 11:30 SA Mining: production & sales, July 2015 - 4.00%
10-Sep 13:00 SA Manufacturing: production & sales, July 2015 - -0.40%
10-Sep 13:00 GBP MPC official bank rate votes 1-0-8 1-0-8
10-Sep TBC GBP Official bank rate 0.50% 0.50%
10-Sep TBC GBP MPC rate statement - -
10-Sep 14:30 USD Unemployment claims - 282K
11-Sep 14:30 USD PPI m/m - 0.20%
11-Sep 16:00 USD Prelim UoM consumer sentiment - 91.9

Source: Economic Calendar, as of 04/09/2015


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Last week's report

A reminder of the key company news announced last week.

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Broker consensus

Source: INET BFA, as of 04/09/2015

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