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Technical analysis: key levels for gold and crude

Gold is grinding higher following recent losses, while Brent price continues to consolidate as we wait for the breakout.

Oil pump
Source: Bloomberg

Gold gradually regaining ground

Gold has been regaining ground after a drop below the 76.4% retracement. The fact that we saw the price convincingly break below that retracement points towards an increased likeliness of a break lower. However, we need to see a move below $1298 to bring about a bearish outlook to the medium-term picture. For the time being, we are seeing a push into the $1316 resistance level, which represents the most notable near-term level.

However, a break above $1334 would be the ultimate signal to show that this pullback is over. The shallow nature of this current move higher suggests that this could be a short-term retracement before we move lower once more. As such, watch out for a potential weakening from the $1316 mark, where a move back above would point towards a bullish short-term picture at least. 

Brent continues to range

The Brent consolidation phase has continued to dominate, with yesterday’s rally being sold into. The price is currently around midway of the $54.70-$55.82 range.

As such, it makes sense to buy near support and sell near resistance until we see an hourly close above one of those levels. That being said, the breakout is expected to come to the upside, given the trend coming into this consolidation. 

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This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited and IG Markets South Africa Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. International accounts are offered by IG Markets Limited in the UK (FCA Number 195355), a juristic representative of IG Markets South Africa Limited (FSP No 41393). South African residents are required to obtain the necessary tax clearance certificates in line with their foreign investment allowance and may not use credit or debit cards to fund their international account.