Technical analysis: key levels for gold and crude

With gold showing signs of weakness and crude turning higher once more, the recent trend looks to be back on the cards.

Oil pipeways
Source: Bloomberg

Gold turning lower, yet is the retracement over?

Gold has been turning lower following a deep retracement past the 76.4% level over the past three trading days. Yesterday’s failure to create a new higher high in the afternoon was a telling sign that the bounce could be over and so we have seen the price of gold fall as a result.

There is still a story over whether we are simply creating a new higher low here, with a break back below $1128 required to put that idea to bed. Until then, a bearish outlook remains in place unless we break through $1145, with a break below $1127 providing greater confidence of this view.

Brent turning higher once more

Brent crude is turning in our favour, following a retracement of the rally from $53.00. With that level intact, this pullback seen last week simply provided us with a good entry price. The head and shoulders pattern completed on Friday paved the way for gains into the next key resistance level at $56.15, which has held for now.

However, with a retracement into the 50% Fibonacci seemingly over, we look likely to break higher from here, as long as we push convincingly through $55.55.

An hourly close above that level would point towards a rally into and above $56.20, with the next target at $57.53. We would need to break back below $53 to negate this bullish view.

WTI breaking higher once more

WTI similarly retraced heavily, yet the failure to break below $50.30, followed by the creation of an inverse head and shoulders has pointed towards the resurgence we have been waiting for. With price currently breaking higher from a symmetrical triangle formation, it seems likely that we will see further gains come into play.

Near-term, a break through $53.26 and in particular $53.56 would point towards a strong move higher, with $55.07 the next major resistance. A bullish outlook remains in place unless we see price break back below $50.30.

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This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited and IG Markets South Africa Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. International accounts are offered by IG Markets Limited in the UK (FCA Number 195355), a juristic representative of IG Markets South Africa Limited (FSP No 41393). South African residents are required to obtain the necessary tax clearance certificates in line with their foreign investment allowance and may not use credit or debit cards to fund their international account.