Trading at $1355, gold is up $11 as traders are anticipating that the Federal Reserve’s bond-buying scheme will remain in place for another few months. The stimulus package is good for the economy but has a negative impact on the US dollar, and the declining dollar makes it relatively cheaper to buy gold.
As Peter Martin pointed out, traders were surprised that tapering of the stimulus package was not announced in September. The partial shutdown of non-essential federal jobs will put a dent in fourth-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) and make tapering more likely to be postponed until the new year.
At lunchtime, the ADP employment change showed us that 130,000 new jobs had been created. While this is a positive step, the number was still below the expectation of 150,000. As such it highlights the impact of the shutdown.
Gold has maintained its upward trend since 17 October, when the US government temporarily increased the debt ceiling, and traders have been buying on the dips. If, as some predict, the Fed suggests tapering won’t happen until at least March 2014, we could see gold head to towards $1360.