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ANC elective conference

What could the upcoming ANC leadership battle mean for the markets? Find out here, and get an expert take with our free webinar hosted by IG senior market analyst, Shaun Murison.

What is the ANC elective conference?

This is a conference hosted every five years by the African National Congress (ANC), the ruling political party in South Africa.

The most anticipated objective of the conference is the election of new ANC leadership, as it ultimately determines the country’s leadership. The elective conference will first determine the top six ANC officials namely, the President, the Vice President, the Secretary General, Chairperson, Treasury General and the Deputy Secretary General before electing further members of the NEC (National Executive Committee).

When is the elective conference?

The conference will start on the 16th of December 2017 and conclude on the 20th of December 2017. 

Webinar: Taking stock of the ANC Elections and how markets are placed

Missed our webinar with senior IG analyst, Shaun Murison? Read about how the markets are poised and the key ones to watch, including the rand, SA40 index and local shares, in Shaun's article.

Read the article

Who are the leading ANC presidential candidates?

Cyril Ramaphosa

  • Chairperson of the Constitutional Assembly 1994 to 1997
  • Director of New African Investments from 1997
  • Deputy President of the ANC since 2012
  • Deputy President of South Africa since 2014

Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma

  • Minister of Health 1994 to 1999
  • Minister of Foreign Affairs 1999 to 2009
  • Minister of Home Affairs 2009 to 2012
  • Chairperson of the African Union 2012 to 2017 

Markets to watch

The South African Rand, bond markets and in turn equity index markets are expected to react to the outcome of the ANC Conference.

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Naspers Ltd
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South African listed prices are delayed 15 mins. Log in or create an account to see real-time prices.

Possible outcomes

If Cyril wins…

Should Cyril Ramaphosa win the ANC presidential position, it is expected to be a positive short term catalyst for business confidence in South Africa. Cyril Ramaphosa himself is a respected and very successful businessman and billionaire (ZAR). He has been involved in large scale private and publicly listed businesses including, McDonalds, Lonmin and MTN. His election campaign has been committed to stamping out corruption within the ANC and the country and promoting inclusive and transformational economic growth.

A win for Cyril is expected to be (initially at least), policy friendly and could stimulate foreign capital inflows translating to strength in bond yields and the rand. In terms of the local equity market this scenario might be more favourable to domestic banking and retail counters, whilst having a short term negative influence on rand hedge industrial counters. 

If Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma wins…

Should Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma win the ANC presidential position, it is expected to be a negative short term catalyst for business confidence in South Africa. While having looked after the Health, Home Affairs and Foreign Affairs portfolios for South Africa with reasonable distinction, Nkosazana’s tenure as Chairperson of the African Union has come under considerable criticism for her frequent absenteeism and despondence when present. The candidate is campaigning on a more populous radical economic change agenda with less acknowledgement of the inherent corruption alleged on numerous fronts of the ruling party.

A win for Nkosazana is expected to be (initially at least), policy unfriendly and could stimulate foreign capital outflows translating to weakness in bond yields and the rand. In terms of the local equity market this scenario might be less favourable to domestic banking and retail counters, whilst having a short term positive influence on rand hedge industrial counters. 

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