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EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY likely to decline on haven demand

EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY look likely to roll over, with market declines sparking further haven demand.


​EUR/USD rebound starts to falter after rally into resistance

EUR/USD has been moving higher for much of this week thus far, with the pair retracing the declines seen last week.

That rise has taken us into the $1.1754 resistance level, which represents the lows from late August and early September. With the stochastic rolling over, a break below the 80 threshold would bring about a sell signal for the pair. We could move higher to push into a deeper Fibonacci retracement, yet whether we decline from here or marginally higher, there is a good chance we are on the cusp of a bearish turn. That bearish view holds unless we see a break through the $1.187 swing high.

GBP/USD turns lower from Fibonacci resistance

GBP/USD has similarly managed to gain ground of late, despite the downtrend that has dominated over the course of September thus far.

However, that bearish trend looks likely to kick in once again as the pair turns lower from the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement level. Given the respect of that level, coupled with the downtrend, further weakness does look likely from here. That bearish outlook holds unless we see the price rise through the $1.3007 swing high.

USD/JPY rises into confluence of resistance

USD/JPY has been gaining ground over the course of the past week, with the pair rising back into the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) and ¥105.79 resistance.

That confluence of resistance could be an interesting area for this pair to start weakening given the wider downtrend in play. That trend points towards a potential bearish reversal before long, with a rise through ¥106.55 needed to negate those expectations. Conversely, a break below the ¥105.26 level would bring about a sell signal and resumption of that downtrend.

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