EUR/USD potential short

Fundamentally, it’s tough to be anything but bearish on the EUR given the massive expansion of the ECB’s balance sheet. 

Source: Bloomberg

We are also seeing clear signs that negative deposit rates are encouraging capital to move out of Europe causing sizeable capital outflows and of course political risk is always present.

The technical picture also favours being short with a rather pronounced downtrend in play from the 16 December high. A break of this downtrend (currently seen at $1.1476) would see the pair target the 38.2% retracement of the December sell-off at $1.1659.

On a more bullish note, the MACD on the daily chart is poised to cross over the signal line, potentially portraying a change in trend, while stochastics momentum has started moving higher.

The important part now is how EUR/USD trades around downtrend resistance. However, the short and longer-term trend is lower and this naturally this needs to be respected. My preference is to wait for price to reject the downtrend and this could be the trigger for short positions. If we see a break, I would potentially be long for a move to $1.1650.

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