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Amazon – trend remains strong

Despite some recent weakness, there isn't much to suggest a bearish outlook for Amazon stock.

All trading involves risk. Losses can exceed deposits.

It has been yet another bumper year for Amazon stock, with the price up 30% since 1 January, compared to 14% for the Nasdaq and 8% for the Dow Jones. There seems little to stop further gains, and from a technical and seasonality standpoint, the outlook remains encouraging. 

The all-time high in Amazon shares occurred on 6 June, and since then they have fallen back. However, the bulls defended the $945.46 level, which was support throughout June. It makes sense to expect further gains, although a deeper retracement to the longer-term trendline, which has held since February 2016, could provide a more attractive entry point. This would suggest a move back down towards $930.

Amazon chart

We should note Amazon’s seasonality, which is traditionally weaker in the July-August period. Over the past 19 years, the average return is 1% for July and 2.2% in August. So the shares may well continue their ascent, but the real performance will come later in the year.

Amazon return chart

Regardless of worries about the strength of the fundamental outlook, and potentially high valuations, the chart remains a bullish one, and there is no reason to think that one of the great stories of the past two decades is about to turn sour. 

This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

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