The week ahead: 7-11 July

A look ahead to the major events, economic releases and company news expected next week.

New homes: housebuilder Taylor Wimpey reports on Monday
Source: Bloomberg

Non-farm payrolls gave indices the catalyst to spike higher during the week, with the Dow Jones finally breaching 17,000. A rebound in the DAX saw that index move above 10,000 once again, although the FTSE 100 has still to get through 6880 before it can be confirmed that a move towards all-time highs is underway.

The euro fell against the US dollar as the European Central Bank reiterated its commitment to loose monetary policy, but the pound saw new highs as UK economic data continued to point to strong growth in the UK. 

Economic reports


German industrial production (May), 7am: This is forecast to rise year-on-year to 3.5%, from 1.8%, but remain steady month-on-month at 0.2%. Markets to watch: DAX, EUR/USD, EUR/GBP


UK industrial and manufacturing production (May), 9.30am: These gauges are expected to see improved growth year-on-year, an indication of the continuing improvement in the UK economy.  Markets to watch: GBP/USD, EUR/GBP


China PPI & CPI (June), 2.30am: Producer price growth is forecast to accelerate to -1% from -1.4%, while consumer prices are expected to weaken to 2.4% from 2.5% a month earlier. Markets to watch: China A50, Hong Kong HS50, AUD/USD, USD/JPY

Fed minutes (June meeting), 7pm: The minutes from the meeting will help indicate whether the committee is in accordance with Janet Yellen’s views about the US economy. Markets to watch: Dow Jones, S&P 500, other US indices, dollar crosses 


Japan PPI (June), 12.50am: Producer prices are forecast to ease back in June from May, with growth falling to 0.1% from 0.3% month-on-month, but growth is expected to accelerate to 4.5% from 4.4%. Market to watch: USD/JPY

China trade balance (June), 2.30am: The trade balance is expected to widen to $37 billion, with faster export growth outweighing an expected rebound in imports. Market to watch: China A50, Hong Kong HS50, AUD/USD, USD/JPY

Australian unemployment rate (June), 2.30am: The rate is expected to rise to 5.9% from 5.8%. Markets to watch: ASX 200, AUD/USD 

Bank of England decision (July), 12pm: The Bank of England is not expected to make any changes to interest rates or its quantitative easing programme, as has been the case for an extended period. The more interesting point will be the minutes later in the month. Markets to watch: GBP/USD, EUR/GBP

US initial jobless claims, 1.30pm:  Weekly unemployment claims are forecast to hold steady at 315,000 for the previous week. Markets to watch: US indices, dollar crosses


German CPI (June, final), 7am: No changes are expected in this reading, remaining steady at 0.3% month-on-month and 1% year-on-year. Market to watch: EUR/USD, EUR/GBP

Canada unemployment rate (June), 1.30pm: The rate is not forecast to change from May, remaining at 7%. Market to watch: USD/CAD


Company announcements


Taylor Wimpey


Dunelm, Ferrexpo, Marks & Spencer, Bovis Homes, Alcoa


Interserve, Galliford Try, Centamin, Booker


Halfords, Burberry, Grafton, SuperGroup, Hays, Ashmore, Premier Oil, Associated British Foods, Barratt Developments


Experian, Wells Fargo


US earnings season kicks off this coming week, with Alcoa as usual beginning the parade of earnings figures.

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