Yesterday saw markets retreat rapidly in the UK and US, although the eurozone’s indices are still looking relatively healthy by comparison, thanks to the impact of quantitative easing. However, the theme of yesterday, the stronger dollar, is not going away, especially with just a week until the next Federal Open Market Committee meeting. At this point we might see buyers return if the statement is more dovish than anticipated, but for now the sellers have the upper hand.
FTSE could fall to 6620
Although still up 2.7% on the year, the FTSE 100 has given back an awful lot of ground in just three sessions. Yesterday’s swan-dive took us all the way back to the 200-DMA, wiping out all moves made since mid-January.
For now this key moving average is doing its job, providing support, so the first target on the upside is the 50-day moving average at 6760, with a daily close above here providing some respite. A close below the 200-DMA, which is still possible given the rapid drop in the daily relative strength index and stochastics would open the way to 6620 and then 6560.
On the four-hour chart the index is heavily oversold, while stochastics have posted a bullish crossover. A small rebound would target 6740 and then 6770. The hourly chart has seen a rally back to the 20-hour MA, but this has now faltered, and any move lower targets 6700 and below.
DAX clings to 11,500
Indices in Europe were not particularly affected yesterday, but the DAX barely registered the drop at all. Instead this index continues to cling on to the 11,500 level, with the uptrend on the hourly chart still intact. Momentum indicators such as the daily RSI have yet to show any bearish signs, so while it may not be wise to chase the market at this point, the time for real selling has arguably not arrived yet.
The hourly chart saw a test of the 200-hour moving average yesterday, but this brought out the buyers, as was the case a week ago. Until the 200-hour MA is broken therefore, or the 50-hour MA crosses below it, caution is advised.
Dow RSI still bearish
All eyes on the Dow Jones turn to the rising uptrend line from October, which is a short distance away at 17,630. A close below here would be firmly bearish and open the way to the 200-DMA at 17,290. The RSI and stochastics are still bearish, even if they are nearing oversold levels that would indicate caution should be exercised.
A short-term bounce from the October trendline would likely carry the index back in the direction of the 50-hour MA at 17,840, at which point sellers should watch for a potential turn lower.
Until the daily stochastic indicator turns bullish once again the emphasis remains on the downside.