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Pound rallies on a hawkish BoE tone

The main theme in the FX space was consolidation as investors continue to assess QE tapering expectations.

All trading involves risk. Losses can exceed deposits.

EUR/USD was looking promising yesterday as the single currency made an attempt higher on the back of the GDP data.

The pair pushed to a high of 1.3281 after French GDP (+0.5% vs +0.2% expected) showed the country is no longer in a recession. German GDP (+0.7% vs +0.6% expected) also came in ahead of estimates and helped GDP for the eurozone rise 0.3% for the quarter. However, the euphoria was short lived and EUR/USD actually pulled back into 1.326 and perhaps tapering fears are keeping the US dollar relatively steady.

The Fed’s James Bullard was on the wires reinforcing that any QE tapering moves will be data dependant, which really shows some consistency to what we’ve been hearing from Fed members lately. This just puts a bit more weight on CPI, unemployment claims and industrial production data due out later today. Mr Bullard will be on the wires yet again today but we don’t expect anything new from him.

The Empire State manufacturing index and the Philly Fed manufacturing index will also deserve some attention and will give an indication of how the US recovery is going. GBP/USD was a standout out in the FX space as traders reacted to an 8-1 vote to give forward guidance. The message was interpreted as hawkish and GBP/USD rallied to a high of 1.555.

AUD/USD has held up well in Asia, possibly supported by big gains in iron ore and gold. Being a commodity currency, we would expect the AUD to benefit from this in the near term. USD/JPY is holding on to the 98 level and it really has been a quiet Asian session, with no major data due out. Volatility in the short term is more likely from the USD side of the equation, with a number of releases due out of the US heading into the end of the week. 

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