USD/JPY tumbles into massive support area
USD/JPY is pulling back again today, falling down towards trendline (from September 2012) and 50-week simple moving average support around ¥119.20-119.50. The ability of the pair to maintain price above those levels is key to its recovery and thus some sort of bounce higher seems likely.
¥119.50 represents not only the 50-week SMA, but also an area of major resistance around 4-8 September. Thus given the current bounce we are seeing, with a long shadow to the previous candle, a bullish engulfing could signal a move higher.
Ultimately I am looking for a bounce higher from that ¥119-50-119-20 zone. However, a move back below that zone would be a warning sign that we could possibly be moving into dangerous territory.
Possible AUD/USD morning star could bring next leg higher
AUD/USD is breaking higher from a hammer candle with its low at the 50-hour SMA. Should we finish the hour with a marabuzo candle it could point to another leg higher for the AUD/USD pair. Price is currently wrestling with the $0.7123 short-term resistance which is the support from the last leg lower. I expect us to see a break higher and a move back towards $0.7165 and on to $0.718.
AUD/NZD breaking higher from triangle, yet retracement seems likely
AUD/NZD has finally broken from the symmetrical triangle formation that has been in play since July. However, as with all of these formations, the peaks that created the formation are the immediate resistance levels to watch out for.
So far, price has managed to break above the late August peak of NZD$1.1266, yet is coming unstuck in the resistance zone between NZD$1.1304 and NZD$1.1317. Thus I am awaiting a break out of this zone for the next move.
An intraday close below NZD$1.1266 would bring expectations of a stronger retracement towards the NZD$1.1225 area (triangle top). Conversely an intraday close above NZD$1.1317 would bring expectations of a move to NZD$1.138. I personally have a hunch we will retrace lower given the size of recent moves, yet the safest way to play it is to await that breakout.