Skip to content

Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 71% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 71% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

FX levels to watch – EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD

EUR/USD is showing signs of strength, while GBP/USD continues to flounder despite yesterday’s short-term strength. Meanwhile, could USD/CAD provide us with a short-term trade that converts into a longer term picture?

US dollar and pound coins
Source: Bloomberg

EUR/USD not quite down and out

EUR/USD managed to break through to a marginal new intraday high on Monday night, which provides us with a sign that we could see this pair rise once more.

The key here is whether we remain above $1.0510, where an hourly close below that level would provide a more bearish outlook. However, for now there is a good chance of a move higher following a fall into the 76.4% retracement at $1.0538.

GBP/USD pulling back from key resistance

GBP/USD is moving lower from the $1.2200 resistance level (3 January low) this morning. The recent sell-off has been dramatic, yet there is likely to be more in the tank for the coming months.

With that in mind, the fall out of a wedge pattern could provide us with the next leg lower. For greater confidence for another strong move, we would need to see an hourly close below $1.2107. However, for now further short-term losses seem likely.

USD/CAD triangle could provide base

USD/CAD is trading within a symmetrical triangle formation this week, following a fall into the 76.4% retracement at C$1.3203. Given the wider long-term eight-month ascending channel, there is a good chance we could be using this triangle as a basing pattern, where a break through C$1.3257 and C$1.3277 would provide confidence of a significant move higher.

Given the shallow nature of the lower bound of this triangle, any pullback towards the trendline could provide the opportunity for longs around the short-term 76.4% (C$1.3203) retracement which would provide a short-term 3/1 trade for a move back into C$1.3239. Given the expectation of a break higher, that 3/1 could easily be amplified if looking at the bigger picture.

Ultimately it depends on someone’s outlook of whether we are seeing a base/reversal or a continuation pattern as to how to play it. Bulls would want to be long from the C$1.3200 region, while shorts will be looking around the C$1.3239 region. Given the long-term considerations, there is a good chance we could see a break higher, yet until we see a break above C$1.3277 or below C$1.3192, it is purely conjecture.

This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

Find articles by writer