Last night’s failure to close above 0.8565 has left the level as a barrier to upside for EUR/GBP, as predicted. The pairing’s daily chart has something of a bearish look to it now, with yesterday’s stalemate day of trade followed by the 0.6% decline in the single currency today.
Much of the attrition in the euro can be put down to yet another record high in the eurozone unemployment number. The CPI for the eurozone is also something that will trouble the policy makers. The annual figure was expected to show a rise of 1.1% (still well below the 2% European Central Bank target level) but came in at a mere 0.7%. This surely means that the long-term refinancing operation from the ECB will happen sooner rather than later in order to prevent any liquidity crunches, and also to try to stir up a degree of inflation.
The fall to 0.8503 in early trade is perhaps a touch too far too soon – the relative strength index on the four-hour and one-hour charts is showing that the sell-off is oversold.
Any failure to stay above the 85p level on a daily close could invite a return to 0.8460/70 levels.