Levels to watch: gold, silver and crude

Gold is firmly stalled just below $1200, but all eyes are shifting to oil as the OPEC meeting dominates headlines.

Oil refinery
Source: Bloomberg

$1190 region supporting gold

There has been scant progress about $1200 for gold in the last few days, and Friday’s bounce is looking increasingly like an aberration. The metal still needs a close above $1210 to restore the momentum of the mid-November bounce, with a target above that of $1240.

So long as it continues to hover indecisively then the chances of a major breakdown increase. First support is likely to lie in the $1190 region, which saw buyers last Friday and also currently hosts the 200-hour moving average.

Below this we look towards $1180, the top of the earlier narrow range and now support from 19/20 November.

Silver progress stalls

Silver’s triumphant progress has stalled at $16.70, but for now the hourly chart shows the metal is finding buyers around the 50-hour MA at $16.55, repeating the pattern seen since last Friday.

For the time being $16.70 is the upside target, followed on by $17.10, while dips towards $16.40 and then $16.25 will be encountering possible support zones.

Brent supported by $78 area

The price of Brent has come to find support at $78 yet again, as buyers look to recover some poise following some significant OPEC-related volatility.

Much of the price action will be determined by the outcome of the OPEC meeting, but for now upside targets lie in the region of $79.50 and then $81.50, while on the downside a failure to remain above $78 means that we look to last week’s lows around $77 as an initial area of possible support.

WTI could fall to $73.40

A bearish crossover of the 50- and 200-hour moving averages will send a signal to many that further downside may be on its way here, and a decision not to cut supply at the OPEC meeting may be the catalyst for further selling.

A drop through $74 means that the next target is $73.40, the low from 14 November, while continued losses suggest that 2010’s low around $70 may soon come into play.

A rally would head towards $75.25, the 200-hour MA, and then $75.90 as a second target in the short term.

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