The bigger picture in global oil supplies has become a little clearer in the last month. The initial fears over political stability in Egypt and ongoing access to the Suez Canal have now calmed down, even though there are still highly dissatisfied parties in Egypt. Further afield, oil supply from Libya is increasing after issues at one of the country’s oil terminals were cleared up. The conciliatory comments between Iran and the US might eventually lead to the current oil embargo being lifted. However, even if the relationship between these two countries did improve, the broader oil embargo with a number of countries would take some time to be voted through.
These fundamental changes to the supply/demand ratio should have prompted a weakening in oil prices, however the last couple of months have seen the Brent crude price move higher, adding more than 10% since mid-April. The price has been above the 50- and 100-day moving averages for over a month now, and Friday saw a break above the 200-day moving average too.