Yen in focus ahead of elections

After a monster rally on Friday, the US dollar seems to have lost a bit of steam early in Asia.

USD/JPY
Source: Bloomberg

An impressive November jobs reports was accompanied by revisions to the previous couple of months and has really spurred the greenback. USD/JPY remains the most interesting pair and continues to power ahead to levels not seen since July 2007. It is a big week for Japan as we head to Sunday’s lower house elections. Diverging fundamentals for the US against everything else really have driven some astonishing runs for the US dollar index as it comes within striking distance of 90.

USD/JPY rallied to a high of ¥121.85 and remains fairly close to that level to start off the week. There has already been some data out of Japan with the second GDP estimate released. The first estimate showed Japan had slipped into a recession and some analysts were expecting a mild recovery in this reading. However, this proved not to be the case as the reading showed a 1.9% contraction, much worse than the initial estimate.

While this didn’t have too much of an impact on the yen, it certainly means more will have to be done to spur a recovery. As far as the elections are concerned, traders will be hoping the coalition secures an absolute majority, which is at least 270 seats. This would be enough to drive further gains for the pair.

Price-action wise, the high from June 2007 of ¥124.14 is a potential target if this run keeps going. A concern is that the pair is massively overbought at the moment, but any pullbacks will only provide another opportunity to buy.

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