FX snapshot – EUR/USD, GBP/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY

Dollar strength is expected to dominate today, yet with the Greek negotiations taking place over the weekend, it is clear that any trading is best left to the short-term.

GBP/EUR
Source: Bloomberg

EUR/USD upside looking likely to be sold into today
The recent strength in EUR/USD has brought the price to the upper threshold of the ascending wedge that has been in play throughout the week. The bearish engulfing pattern posted so far this week points to a possible topping off. However, with the price rising straight after, it shows that there is a clear possibility that we could see another break higher.

Nevertheless, I am bearish unless we move above $1.1135. This would be both a continuation of the wedge and the bearish engulfing fallout. Should the price fall, I would be looking at $1.1045 as the major support. Given the Greek discussions over the weekend, I would suggest either widening stop losses or, preferably, closing European-exposed trades for the weekend given the chance of a major gap open.

GBP/USD bounce points to resurgence yet near-term selling likely
The past two days have seen GBP/USD regain some of the ground lost on Wednesday. While this possible reversal points to a strengthening in sentiment for next week, I am aware of the fact that we are likely to see another Greece-fueled gap from the weekend and thus will not look any further than today’s trading.

Given the strength we have seen so far overnight and this morning, I do expect to see some selling soon. The resistance zone between $1.5441 and $1.5447 is one area that could come into play, and with the stochastic oscillator approaching the same level that has provided the reversals lower on the past two occasions, I am bearish around these levels.

Any such move lower would likely seek to create a new higher low, and thus my support would be around $1.5355 from the ascending trendline. Any break above $1.5447 would then look to $1.5468 as the next resistance point.

NZD/USD retracement showing signs of giving way
The upside we have seen in NZD/USD is nothing to worry about in my opinion. It falls into line with previous examples of retracements, such as those on 13 May and 9 June. Those two were sold at the 100-period (4-hour) simple moving average.

Yet with the price coming off the back of two doji candles, there is clear indecision in this market right now. As such, I am bearish as long as the price remains below the 100-period SMA. A close above that indicator would make me more neutral.

USD/JPY selloff hits the buffers
The selloff in USD/JPY took me by surprise, falling 182 pips on Wednesday alone. However, we have since seen the dollar pick back up and regain much of those losses, bringing it into the falling wedge once more.

Now that price is both inside the falling wedge, and above the ¥122.03, I am hoping to see a return to the upper end of the wedge. That would mean a move to around ¥127.44. I will be watching the lower timeframes to ensure that we continue on the clear pathway of higher highs and higher lows to give me ongoing confidence of a move to ¥127.44.

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