FX snapshot: US Dollar Basket, EUR/USD, AUD/USD, USD/CAD

Dollar weakness is expected to continue, bringing further EUR/USD upside. However, AUD/USD and USD/CAD both look likely to see some of their recent moves unwound.

Source: Bloomberg

Dollar Index breaking to new October low
The Dollar Index is selling off once more this morning, to continue the trend of dollar weakness that has dominated the month of October. With price currently breaking below 94.74, I am looking for a move towards 94.50 and ultimately back to 94.20 by the end of the week. We continue to create new lows and the 20-period simple moving average provides decent resistance for any retracement higher. Thus I continue to be bullish as long as price remains at the recent high of 95.09.

EUR/USD breaking higher as bullish trend emerges
EUR/USD is moving higher once more this morning, as it breaks above yesterday’s peak of $1.14. The pair has clearly bottomed out throughout September and is now moving in a more consistent and reliable fashion after the sideways chop that has made this a tough pair to trade.

I am now expecting it to trend upwards today, with a move back towards $1.146-$1.1467 resistance likely in the coming days. Pullbacks will be expected to provide buyers with a better price for longs and I will remain bullish as long as new highs and higher lows are being created. Thus I would be wary should price move back below $1.1345. 

AUD/USD selling off from long term SMA
AUD/USD has sold off sharply overnight, following price hitting the 100-day SMA resistance ($0.7364) both today and yesterday. Coming off the back of a 10 day run of upside, we had to expect some form of pullback soon enough and this appears to be happening.

The upside seen over the past four hours is clearly at a shallower incline to the move overnight and looks very much like a flag formation, which is a continuation pattern. As such, I expect another leg lower to occur in the coming hours. Upside resistance would be expected at $0.7335 (50-hour SMA), yet ultimately I expect a move back to $0.7294 and $0.7280 in the near future. 

USD/CAD pulls back, yet a recovery could be on the cards
USD/CAD sold off sharply this morning, coming off the back of a strong move higher yesterday. This pair has been one of the most consistent movers of October, breaking lower day upon day. However, with oil selling off once more, this has provided us with a possible bullish reversal for USD/CAD.

This morning’s selloff certainly could have further legs on it, but I am expecting a new higher low to be created soon enough and a break above C$1.3064 would subsequently provide the signal for me to be bullish once more for a move towards C$1.3103 and C$1.3156.

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