FX levels to watch – EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY

The dollar is on the backfoot this week, with late gains last week turning into losses against EUR/USD and GBP/USD. Will USD/JPY also turn lower to reverse from a crucial resistance level?

Euro
Source: Bloomberg

EUR/USD heading for a strong start

EUR/USD has been regaining ground this morning, following on from the European Central Bank (ECB) fueled sell-off seen on Thursday and Friday.

The key hurdle to overcome here is $1.1644, where an hourly close above that level would point towards a wider resurgence. In that event, we would be looking for a Fibonacci retracement, with the $1.1705-1.1774 region coming into play (50-76.4%).

GBP/USD pushing higher ahead of BoE

GBP/USD similarly lost a significant amount of ground last week, with the pair breaking below the $1.3087 mark. However, we are now seeing the price regaining ground, and with the Bank of England (BoE) expected to raise rates later this week, there is a good chance this move could continue for some time yet.

As such, watch out for further upside, set within a recent broadening formation (higher higher/lower low). We await a break from that uncertain pattern. However, for now, the short-term looks bullish for the pair.

USD/JPY consolidates below key resistance

USD/JPY has been consolidating below the crucial ¥114.50 resistance level. A break through that level would form a new seven-month high for the pair. However, given the bearish moves we are seeing for the dollar, there is a chance we could see the pair break to the downside. If that happened, the fact that it was happening from such an important resistance level would likely cause traders to think that we could have some further downside momentum. The bearish divergence between the price and the stochastic oscillator provides another clue that we could be set for a bearish breakdown.

That being said, with the Bank of Japan (BoJ) providing their latest rate decision overnight, it is worthwhile noting the significant event risk ahead. An hourly close below ¥113.34 would provide a more bearish short-term view, while an hourly close above ¥114.50 would provide a bullish continuation signal. 

IGA, may distribute information/research produced by its respective foreign marketing partners within the IG Group of companies pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, IGA accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore recipients should contact IGA at 6390 5118 for matters arising from, or in connection with the information distributed.

This information/research prepared by IGA or IGA Group is intended for general circulation. It does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. In addition to the disclaimer above, the information does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Any views and opinions expressed may be changed without an update.

See important Research Disclaimer.