FX levels to watch – EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD

Dollar strength is the name of the game, with EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD all expected to turn lower before long. Given Janet Yellen’s speech this afternoon, volatility will be high, yet hopefully a hawkish outlook can help the dollar on its way.

Pound sterling coins and US dollar notes
Source: Bloomberg

EUR/USD rally unlikely to last

EUR/USD is regaining ground following the completion of a double top formation earlier in the week. This comes at an area where we were looking for a reversal lower and as such, another move lower seems likely from here.

That being said, we could see further gains over the short-term, yet with trendline and 76.4% ($1.1329) resistance up ahead, any such rally would be seen as a good opportunity to get short.

Essentially, a bearish short-term view is held unless we see an hourly close above $1.1355. 

GBP/USD expected to turn lower once more

IN_GBPUSD is also looking pretty bearish, following a move lower from the resistance triangle mentioned earlier in the week. Price is currently moving higher, yet with the 76.4% retracement of this week’s pullback also coinciding with the wider 76.4% retracement from the $1.3372 peak earlier in the month, this provides us with an opportunity to scale up the trade.

As such, shorts around $1.3249 make sense from a short-term perspective. However, it also makes sense for a longer-term perspective too. As such, by utilising the view that we will not break above this week’s high of $1.3273, yet will ultimately hit the wider target of 1.2864, it gives us a 15:1 trade idea.

Obviously a bit of a long shot (hence the odds), but an idea nonetheless. Essentially, for the short-term, I am bearish unless we break back above $1.3273, yet considering that marries up with the medium-term view, we would need to see a break through $1.3372 to truly negate this bearish outlook.

AUD/USD shooting star points to possible weakness

Yet again, we are looking for dollar strength, with AUD/USD having gained ground, yet in posting a shooting star candle, things look likely to turn for the worse. The $0.7655 level is key and unless we see an hourly close above that level, it seems likely we will see a break lower towards $0.7583.

Given that price is currently at the 70% retracement between $0.7655 and $0.7583, it gives a 2:1 trade for a move back down to the lows rather than a break higher. Alternately, one could wait for another move back into the 76.4% level for a 3:1 option. Either way, a bearish view is in play unless we see an hourly close above $0.7655. 

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