EUR/USD treads water

How do you value the strength of a currency that has so much political uncertainty hanging over it?

This is the question that many traders will be asking, as we are unlikely to get a resolution to continued discussions taking place between the two political powers in the US anytime soon.

We have seen a number of pieces of economic data released for the EU today, including trade balance figures for France and Germany. True to form the French figures are a little weaker, while the German data indicates a slight improvement for the region.

Across the pond, with the US government still on shutdown, the flow of economic data has stagnated and, without a reliable flow of information, analysis for this region has become difficult. Market action in the last 48 hours implies that currency traders have decided to hold their positions and await further clarification. This goes against the natural instinct of currencies which, as a 24-hour tradable product, is certainly not to stand still.

Those IG clients trading EUR/USD and other US dollar pairs should be conscious of the possibility of large corrective moves when things do clear up.

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