Commodities report: gold and crude

Big selling in commodities yesterday leads to brief respite today. But will it last?

Gold bars
Source: Bloomberg

Gold triangle leads to further losses
Gold continues to suffer, with the resurgence seen earlier in the week leading to yet another strong move lower upon the breakout of a symmetrical triangle. The fact we are now hitting new multiyear lows – on what seems like a daily basis – means support levels are hard to come by.

A crucial support level of note is represented at $1044, marking the 2010 low. However, ultimately the bearish outlook remains and we look for the creation of new lower highs and lows. This outlook remains unless we see a closed hourly candle above $1055, which would point towards some form of short-term recovery.


US crude sells into key support
US crude saw yet another major leg lower yesterday, sparked by the move below the big support level of $42.00. With price having now come into the $40.57 support level and posting a spinning top, there is a chance we could see some short-term bounce.

A closed hourly candle above $41.27 would signal the creation of a short-term high to accompany a higher low. At which point we would be looking towards $41.66 as the next resistance level. However, the overall downtrend is clearly dominant and thus selling seems likely to return soon enough. Support levels of $40.57 and $40.00 are the next in view.

US crude

Brent back above resistance
Brent saw strong selling yesterday, bringing price below the crucial $43.26 level. This meant the creation of a new three-month low. However, with price having first found resistance at $43.26 and subsequently broken through it, there is a possibility of a bounce from here.

A close above $43.79 would bring a bullish short-term bias, with $44.37 the next key resistance level. A close back below $43.26 would bring back the bearish bias determined by the long-term bear market. The next key support level below $43.26 is $42.50.


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