Technical analysis: key levels for gold, silver and crude

The core US consumer price index only rose by 0.1% in June, providing little rationale for a rally in precious metals, while crude oil remains becalmed with a lack of news to drive the price.

Silver ingots
Source: Bloomberg

Gold recovers 50-hour MA

Gold’s recovery back above the 50-hour moving average is adding to the impression that the metal is slowly going to claw its way higher.

However, it is obvious that any rally will be predicated on a break of the $1320 level, and before that the 200-hour MA, before a move back towards $1345 can be contemplated.

On the downside $1294 becomes the level to watch, followed by the 200-day moving average at $1286.

Silver could head towards $21.50

A similar rally on the hourly chart is underway in silver, but now the $21 level becomes crucial.

A close above here would suggest we could see a move back to the $21.50 level, the peak from the middle of the month.

Any drop back would need to push through the $20.60-70 zone, and then on to the 200-DMA around $20.30.

$108 level hinders Brent

In Brent the $108 level is holding back attempts to break higher. This would be the second time in three days that such a move has been tried, and leads to the possibility that Brent may find itself stuck between $106 and $108.

We have seen a break through the 200-hour MA, but with the hourly relative strength index declining this could be a short-lived development.

NYMEX progress blocked by $103 level

The $103 level is the major stumbling block for any break higher here and, while the 100-DMA is supporting the price, at present there is little fresh news to drive it higher.

Moves to the downside should be contained by the $100 level, but while the 20-DMA is still declining it seems that NYMEX will have difficulty mounting a more extended rally.

A close above the 20-DMA would be needed before we can say that the directionless period has come to an end.

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