Technical analysis: key levels for gold, silver & crude

Commodity prices are modestly under pressure today, as gold heads back towards the lows for the month.

Gold bars
Source: Bloomberg

Gold still looking down
The metal is struggling to hold $1190, with a continuation of the downward move heading towards $1180 and possible support. A close below this level still raises the prospect of another dip towards $1150. If the metal can recover however, then it is clear that the range trading of recent sessions is set to continue. The limit of gold’s ambition has been $1200 in recent weeks, with progress to the upside stalling repeatedly around this zone. Even so, the real test of any break higher will be the $1220 area.

Silver looks to break its downward move
Yesterday’s break below $16 suggests that more downside is on the way for silver, with a test of $15.50 a possibility. A sequence of lower highs and lower lows has been the norm over the past week, with support possible at $15.80 and then $15.70. A break of $16.10 would target the 200-hour simple moving average (SMA) at $16.17 and signal that the downward move has run its course.

Brent looks set for losses
It looks like we could see more losses in Brent crude, should the price break yesterday’s lows around $61.40. The 200-hour SMA continues to rise, but on the daily chart the relative strength index (RSI) is dropping lower once more. As a result, we could see an ongoing retracement towards support at $59. The key level of resistance is $65 and this must be broken to restart the upward move.

WTI also continues to drift
The drift lower continues for WTI, with the move downwards in the price matched by bearish moves in the daily RSI and stochastics. The price now finds itself sitting just above the 200-hour moving average at $55.85, with a break below here potentially carrying us back to the area around $53. A short-term bounce will probably be contained by the 100-hour MA at $57.10.

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